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fxus63 kilx 281028 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
528 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 212 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

The cold front has pushed into extreme southern Illinois early
this morning. Drier air has been lagging behind a bit, but 2 am
dewpoints are now in the 50s from about Peoria northward and had
fallen to the mid 60s along the I-72 corridor. Despite this, not
much further progress is anticipated today, as the partly-mostly
cloudy skies at times will keep the lower levels from fully mixing
out. However, clearing skies this evening will spread the drier
air southward, and allow lows tonight to reach the 50s over nearly
all of the forecast area.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 212 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

A pretty quiet period is shaping up, as broad scale troughing
stays in place over the eastern U.S. Much of the upcoming week. A
gradual modification in air mass will result in temperatures
returning to near normal after a few cooler days. With surface high
pressure dominating the Midwest, there will not be a lot of
moisture advection taking place to interact with various weak
waves dropping southeast within the trough. The GFS is most
aggressive with at least scattered convection each day beginning
on Monday, while the European model (ecmwf) only ekes out a little rain Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons. Have not gone too overboard with the
pop's yet, mainly 20-30% range.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 528 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Main concern remains with the area of low stratus currently in
southern Illinois and western Indiana. Most recent ob from kdnv
is showing a cloud layer at 600 feet and the hrrr model continues
to show some westward advection with the lower cloud deck. Have
continued with the potential for MVFR conditions at kcmi for a
couple hours later this morning. The cloud deck may make a close
pass at kdec as well, but will keep the lower clouds there as
scattered until trends become more certain. Any MVFR conditions
should improve by midday. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected
to prevail through the period.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...

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