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afdilx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A cold front pushing just south of I-70 at mid afternoon will
move through se Illinois next few hours. The remnants of Tropical Storm
Cindy was over western Kentucky and tracking NE over the Ohio River
valley this afternoon. Scattered convection will diminish over
southeast Illinois late this afternoon with dry conditions across County Warning Area by
00z/7 PM. Much drier air ushering into central Illinois on breezy
northerly winds, with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s from I-55 NW
while muggy upper 60s to mid 70s southeast of a Rantoul to
Taylorville line. Lows overnight will range from 55f to 61f with
coolest readings NW of Illinois River and mildest near Lawrenceville.

A 554 dm 500 mb low over southeast Saskatchewan will dive se into
west central WI by 00z/7 PM Sat, keeping its clouds and showers
north of central Illinois. A nice early Summer day for central Illinois on
Saturday with mostly sunny skies and breezy NW winds with cooler
highs in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The upper level low will track east across the Great Lakes Sat
night and Sunday keeping its showers north/NE of County Warning Area and also
keeping below normal temperatures into early next week with the
upper level trof extending into Illinois. Cooler lows Sat and Sunday
night in the low to mid 50s. Mostly sunny skies Sunday though will
see more cumulus clouds northern cwa, with isolated convection
staying NNE of central Illinois. Highs Sunday of 72-78f, coolest from
I-74 north.

Isolated convection possible north of I-70 Monday afternoon into
early Monday evening with a weak short wave diving se through
central Illinois. Highs Monday in the low to mid 70s, which is a good 10
degrees below normal (mid 80s) for late June. Large upper level
trof will shift east of the Ohio Valley toward the mid Atlantic
coast by sunset Tue with upper level ridge moving into the Central
Plains on Tue. Temps modifying into the upper 70s (near 80f SW
cwa) for highs Tue. Most of County Warning Area will remain dry on Tue night and
Wed with just slight pops NW of Peoria late Tue night into Wed.
Warmer highs in the low to mid 80s on Wed, though not too humid
yet as dewpoints rise into the upper 50s/lower 60s Wed afternoon.

More unsettled wx pattern occurs from Wed night through Friday.
Surface low pressure tracking north of Upper Michigan Wed night with
cold front extending SW to another low pressure moving into
western Kansas. This to spread chances of showers and thunderstorms se
into central Illinois during Wed night especially after midnight.
Central Illinois will stay on the warm side of the frontal boundary
Thu/Fri with warm and more humid air moving into the area and
highs in the 80s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A cold front was pressing southward toward I-70 early this
afternoon and its convection was se of central Illinois airports. Cold
front to push through southeast Illinois by 21z/4 PM and breezy north
winds behind cold front over central Illinois this afternoon with gusts
15-23 kts. Winds to veer west-northwest and decrease to 5-10 kts after sunset
then increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts after 14z/9 am
Sat. Clearing line was pushing se to along I-55 early this
afternoon. MVFR broken ceilings at Dec and cmi for about another
hour, then clearing skies with VFR conditions expected through
midday Saturday. A 553 dm 500 mb low over east central
Saskatchewan to dive se into east central Minnesota by 18z/1 PM Sat and
will keep its clouds and showers north of central Illinois through
Saturday.

&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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