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afdilx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
914 PM CDT sun Jul 23 2017

Update...
issued at 913 PM CDT sun Jul 23 2017

Scattered storms continue to move through central...mainly east
central...Illinois this evening. Am expecting this to continue
tonight but still need to adjust pops/wx in the grids. Remainder
of forecast looks good as this trough moves through and skies
become mostly clear for the remainder of the night. Update will be
forthcoming.

&&

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 340 PM CDT sun Jul 23 2017

A couple features will continue to produce chances for showers and
thunderstorms through evening as SBCAPE to around 3000 j/kg has
developed with afternoon heating across central Illinois. First is the
upper trough axis located approximately along I-57 and pushing
eastward. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms could form east
of this for the next few hours before subsidence behind the axis
limits any development. Second is a surface trough axis from
Michigan through Kansas City and starting to produce some the
Milwaukee area back through northwest Illinois west of the Illinois River.
This feature will move southeastward this afternoon and bring the
best chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across central
Illinois into the evening until nocturnal cooling diminishes instability
and the feature moves southeast of the area. Winds will diminish and
turn northerly overnight behind the trough axis with drier air
moving in, allowing temperatures to fall into the 60s for lows.
Expect highs to reach anywhere from 81 along I-74 to 87 in
Lawrenceville Monday.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 340 PM CDT sun Jul 23 2017

High pressure will bring dry weather and still relatively low
humidity Tuesday then Gulf moisture will return by Wednesday
behind the outgoing high. A slight chance for thunderstorms
returns as early as Wednesday afternoon as GFS produces
precipitation in a weak disturbance, however most models focus
precip chances with a cold front on track for Wednesday night into
Thursday. Highs on Tuesday expected in the mid 80s followed by
around 90 on Wednesday. The heat will be brief as the cold front
drops highs back to the low to mid 80s for the remainder of the
week and weekend. High pressure should keep conditions dry again
from late Thursday night into next weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 710 PM CDT sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Keeping some
thunderstorms in the vicinity at all sites this evening except pia. The way the trough is
rotating through the state, believe pia is safe. Other sites could
see convection for 1-2 or 3 hrs this evening and then skies should
become mostly clear overnight. Light fog is again possible toward
morning and then some low cumulus/SC should develop tomorrow late
morning. Winds will be light and become northwest as the trough
moves through and then become northerly tomorrow.



&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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