Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kilx 190854 
afdilx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
354 am CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 332 am CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Temperatures remain warm through the end of the week with precip
moving through the region for the weekend. Colder air brings more
fall like conditions for next week.

Plenty of sunshine today over an already warm airmass will bring
the Max temps up into the 70s for today, well above seasonal
normals. Although the winds will generally be lighter, a southerly
component will continue through much of central Illinois today. A
weakening cold front to the northwest wavering in the region today...but
not much of an impact expected as it stalls near the Illinois River
valley. Temps tonight a few degrees warmer than this morning as
south/southwesterly flow in the midlevels keeps the warm air
advection going.



&&

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 332 am CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Southerly winds pick up at the surface for Friday, increasing warm air advection
and pushing the Max temps into the mid to upper 70s, about 10f-12f
degrees above climatological averages. Mid levels warming in the
European model (ecmwf) to 16-17c and have brought the blends up a couple degrees
across the board. Warm air continues into Saturday, but will be
tempered by increasing cloud cover ahead of an advancing cold
front. Rain associated with the front will impinge on areas northwest of
the Illinois River later on Saturday with the precip spreading across
the state overnight and into Sunday. Models continue to show a
potential break between the upper wave breaking away from the
northern stream and creating a cutoff low over the Southern
Plains. Better instability/thunder chances to the south/southwest
with the better dynamics invof the upper low. European model (ecmwf) also showing a
slowing of the progress of the low...and pushing the front
through. Front will be moving through in the overnight hours,
likely low on instability given the timing. Still watching for
formation of a break making the activity potentially more shower
like Sat night/Sunday. The shift in the timing of the progress of
the southern low potentially making this a more prolonged and
showery end to the weekend/beginning of next week. Models
lingering the precip chances a little longer into Tuesday, finally
settling cooler air into the region. Temps trending down Sunday
through Tuesday...but by Wednesday the colder air aloft keeps the
highs in the 50s, below normals for the end of October.




&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the entire forecast area
through Thursday night. Quiet weather expected over the region
for the next couple of days with only some scattered high level
clouds from time to time. Winds will not be much of a factor thru
this forecast period with a southerly flow tonight at less than 10
kts with winds variable in direction on Thursday at around 5 kts.



&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations