Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kilx 200832 
afdilx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
332 am CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 320 am CDT Fri Oct 20 2017
regardless of oscillation in the models, the forecast remains very
much the same from a consensus Point of View. Unseasonably warm
temperatures today and tomorrow...wet weekend from Saturday night
and into next week. Cooler temperatures on the other side of the
weekends rain.

Wave digging in over the Pacific coast this morning on Sat imagery
has begun to modify the upper air pattern into a more amplified
signal...with southwesterly flow becoming more prominent and
resulting in the warmest day in the forecast for today. Max temps
expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s. Tonights lows
relatively mild in the 50s.

&&

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 320 am CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

For Saturday, the warm airmass is still in place over the region
as the upper trof moves across The Rockies and into the plains.
The Max temps will be slightly tempered, however, with an increase
in the cloud cover in advance of the approaching front. Models had
originally kept the wave phased and a long line of showers
progressed with the sfc front. The past few runs split the energy
into a cut off low to the south, and a more progressive flow
pattern just to the north. If anything, current runs are a hybrid,
trending back to a more phased pattern. Low is not as strong as it
cuts off to the south. However, small shifts in that particular
feature will result in fairly significant changes for the forecast
in central Illinois. With the low to the south keeping the better
dynamics, ilx may end up on the edge of the northern stream, and
just north of the developing low over the Gulf Coast. More shower
activity in The Gap between materializing in the GFS again this
run...with an appropriate drop in quantitative precipitation forecast guidance. Forecast remains
mainly unchanged with the best chances for rain Saturday night and
Sunday. Pops linger into the work week with cooling temperatures
as the progression of the weakening boundary is slowed. Cooler
temps come to an end on Thursday as winds come around to more
southerly and start at least a brief warming trend again.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through Friday night. High pressure at
the surface and aloft will govern our weather for the next 24 to
36 hours. Scattered cirrus will push across the area at times
through the period as a storm system gathers strength well out
to our west and southwest, but no significant cloud cover or
vsby restrictions are expected through tomorrow night. Southerly
winds tonight of less than 10 kts will increase to between 8 and
13 kts on Friday



&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations