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000 
FXUS61 KILN 280232
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1032 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build in tonight. A frontal boundary
will develop into the region late Friday and linger near the 
area into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight. Winds
will continue to decrease overnight and river valley fog will be
possible. Mid clouds will move into the region late in the
overnight hours. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight 
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move off to the east Friday morning. An
east-west front will begin to develop into the southwest
counties in the afternoon. This front will become sharper and
lift into the northern part of the forecast area Friday night.
Some showers may develop in western counties before the end of
the day. But activity will increase overnight as mid level short
wave moves through southwest flow which will induce a low level
jet, enhancing lift. Models are spreading elevated instability
across the region which could be sufficient for some severe
storms with large hail. In addition, there is a risk of heavy
rainfall. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on 
details. Given model differences, forecast has leaned quite a 
bit on the SREF. Forecast temperatures are on the warmer side of
guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While the models agree that there will be a frontal boundary
stretched across the region on Saturday, there remains to 
differences in the placement and the timing of convection. 
Majority of the models have the front and the pcpn running from
central Indiana northeast into northwest Ohio as dawn breaks on
Saturday. As sfc low move ne up the front in the ne TX and ern 
OK, the front buckles northward on Saturday, allowing the srn 
edge of the pcpn work also work northward. With the region split
by the front, there will be a wide range in temperatures. Highs
in the se will push into the mid 80s, while locations in the nw
will remain in the mid to upper 60s.

The region will be warm sectored on Sunday. An isolated storm
will be possible in the heating. Highs on Sunday will push into
the 80s.

For Sunday night into Monday an ejecting H5 low will push a 
strong cold front ewd up the Ohio Valley. Line of convection 
will reach the fa late Sunday night and may be lingering in the 
eastern counties at the beginning of Monday.

Behind the front, much colder air will work into the region. The
GFS is the wettest with the wrap around moisture. Ran a blend of
the PoPs for the middle of the week by carry low chance PoPs.
Highs will be in the 60s.

By the end of the week, temperatures another cutoff low pushes
another round of pcpn east of the Mississippi.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few wind gusts remain around KCMH and KLCK this evening,
however expect winds to gradually diminish as high pressure
builds into the area. Mid clouds will work into the area later
in the overnight hours, however before they do some river valley
fog will be possible overnight at KLUK. Dry conditions are
expected to continue during the daytime hours on Friday, however
some showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the
longer KCVG TAF at the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of 
thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Saturday and then
again Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible 
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

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