Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS61 KILN 250535
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
135 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region tonight and will extend
across the area into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will 
return for Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front 
approaches and moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The 25.00Z KILN sounding was one of impressive drying/deep
subsidence as high pressure over the Great Lakes builds south.
Boundary layer flow was turning northeast across the area and
drier air /marked by lower 60s and even some upper 50s
dewpoints/ was flowing in. GOES-16 3.9 micron channel showed
just a few leftover areas of flat cumulus over central Ohio, and
few clouds as well across northern Kentucky, and it will take a
few more hours for these to dissipate. Larger shield of clouds
rotating south over eastern Ohio may try to brush portions of
central Ohio later in the night but latest guidance suggests the
bulk of this stays east. Forecast was in good shape and only
minor edits to temp/sky/wind were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure ridging will extend into the region for Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Dry air will remain along with mostly sunny
day and a mostly clear night. Highs will range from the upper
70s to the lower 80s with lows once again in the mid 50s to the
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the region 
into Wednesday with dry conditions and nearly seasonal temperatures. 

A short wave will drop southeast through the Great Lakes on
Thursday pushing a cold front towards the area. Showers and 
thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the day and 
continue into the evening. As the cold front moves through 
Thursday night, precipitation will end. 

Upper level long wave trough will become established and persist 
through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will remain 
centered to the northwest of the area bringing a prolonged period of 
northeasterly winds. This fetch off of Lake Erie may bring some 
extra clouds and perhaps even a few showers into northwest counties. 
Temperatures will be slightly below normal Friday through the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There could be a brief period of visibility restrictions at KLUK
overnight, otherwise VFR will prevail through the TAF period.
Skies will remain clear until after daybreak. Few to scattered
cumulus will develop with the greater coverage in central Ohio.
These will dissipate with loss of heating. Generally northeast
winds at less than 10 kt. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR visibilities possible late Tuesday night. 
Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations