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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
756 PM EDT sun Jul 24 2016

Synopsis...
a cold front will begin to approach the area overnight and move
through the region on Monday. Hot and humid conditions will be
present in advance of this feature with thunderstorms possible at
times.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
temperatures will continue to drop off this evening therefore have
cancelled portions of the excessive heat warning and heat
advisory. Kept the portion that remains in effect through Monday
evening.

Only a couple isolated showers remain across the area at this
time. Additional thunderstorms will approach the region overnight
however this activity will be on a weakening trend as it
approaches. Due to this have limited precipitation chances to the
slight chance category across most of the area and chance category
across the north.

&&

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/...
heat and humidity will continue for Monday. Heat index values will
be near 100 again with a better chance for this across southern
portions of the region. Continued the heat advisory and excessive
heat warning across southern portions of the region for Monday.

A cold front will move through on Monday. There has been some
variability with how much convection will develop with this
feature, however given airmass in place believe that preciptiation
chances will be likely across the southern portions of the
forecast area by late in the afternoon and early evening hours. A
few of these storms may reach severe limits with damaging winds
the primary threat.

Boundary will hold up across southern portions of the area and
therefore linger preciptiation chances across the far south
through Tuesday night. With cold air advection across the northern portions of
the forecast area on Tuesday believe cu will develop during the
day. Even with the cold air advection expect high temperatures on Tuesday to be
in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
stationary frontal boundary looks to be positioned along or just
south of the Ohio River Wednesday. Boundary will Divide a very moist
air mass to the south from a relatively drier air mass to the north.
Will continue with chance pops for thunderstorms close to and south
of the front on Wednesday.

Boundary will lift north as a warm front late Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will allow precipitable water values to increase
northward, placing the County Warning Area back in a very moist environment for
Thursday.

Models show a shortwave approaching late Thursday or Thursday night.
Timing is still somewhat in question, but there is decent consensus
on the track which will bring it across the Ohio Valley. Therefore,
begin to increase pops for Thursday afternoon and will continue
chance pops into Thursday night for possible influence from
shortwave.

Additional shortwaves may affect the Ohio Valley Friday through
Saturday. Details associated with the shortwaves (such as
track/timing/strength) are in question and will need to be resolved
with time. But the potential for shortwaves combined with a warm
moist air mass means that chance pops for convection will continue
through at least Saturday. Eventually, a cold front may move through
and this could occur late Saturday into Sunday but confidence is low
on the timing of the frontal passage.

Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above
average values through the long term.

&&

Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
VFR cu field has developed this afternoon as remnants of an mesoscale convective system
continue to track through the Great Lakes region. A few -shra/ts have
popped across west-central and central Ohio this afternoon given
high instby environment. Expect this activity should stay north of
the terminals, so have kept sites dry through today.

For this evening, convection will likely develop across parts of
northern Illinois/in and track southeast. Cams continue to indicate this
activity will weaken as it moves into central Indiana and
potentially extreme western Ohio. With instby waning after 02z
and convection moving away from primary forcing, it seems likely
that activity will dissipate before potentially affecting western
taf sites of kcvg, kluk, and kday. Therefore, have kept dry trend
through 06z despite uncertainty regarding exact convective
evolution.

Main concern overnight will be potential for br to form again,
especially for kluk and Kiln. Although conditions do not appear
to be ideal for widespread br development across the region, MVFR
vsbys are once again possible.

West-southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kts are expected Monday as a
cold front drifts south through area. With high instby, plenty of
moisture, and a source for lift, expect that rain showers/ts will develop
across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There exists
uncertainty on exact timing and location of potential initiation,
so have handled this with a thunderstorms in the vicinity at all sites starting at 16z
(although initiation may be end up occurring after 18z monday).



Outlook...thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and again
Thursday.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ohz073-074-078>082-088.
Excessive heat warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ohz077.
Kentucky...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for kyz089>100.
In...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for inz075-080.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Novak
near term...Novak
short term...Novak
long term...bpp
aviation...kc

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