Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 270130
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
930 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017
showers and thunderstorms will develop today into tonight as low
pressure moves to Lake Michigan. After a brief visit by high
pressure and drier air early Monday, another low will bring more
showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather can
be expected Wednesday under high pressure.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
a weakening upper level low and an associated trough axis will
continue to pivot off to our northeast overnight. This will
allow for the scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms to
taper off through the early morning hours.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 PM Monday/...
Monday an area of upper level low pressure will push east across
the central United States. This second system will be right on
the heals of the Sunday upper level low and will bring a quick
return for the chance of showers and thunderstorms. After the
brief break Monday morning the upper level low will move towards
Illinois with pockets of positive vorticity advection crossing the iln forecast area.
Pwats will also be on the rise towards 1.10" (nam and gfs). The
best upper level lift from the rrq will be further south towards
Kentucky but with a weak upper level jet streak moving overhead
think upper level support will be more than sufficient. Mu cape
values on the NAM across the southern zones are nearing 1500
j/kg while are only around 500 j/kg on the GFS. On the GFS the
greatest 0-3km bulk shear is also further south across Kentucky. The
NAM on the other hand is more north with the greatest shear and
instability. Thanks to the mentioned above Storm Prediction Center has most of the
area in a marginal risk.
Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
severe risk continues into Monday evening as an area of low
pressure moves across the region. Isolated damaging winds,
isolated large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible.
Have this highlighted in the severe weather potential statement. Severe threat will diminish
later in the overnight hours as the area of low pressure moves
out of the region.
Additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible
across primarily the southeastern half of the forecast area on
Tuesday closer to a frontal boundary. Dry conditions are then
expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night in between systems.
A warm front will lift northward on Thursday allowing for
showers and some thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue for Friday as a cold front moves through.
Precipitation will taper off Friday night into Saturday morning.
Another system will move into the area on Sunday. There are more
model differences with this system therefore limited
precipitation chances to the chance category.
Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/...
a broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is pushing
east across central Ohio with a few lingering showers back to
the west. This is associated with an upper level trough axis
pivoting northeast across our area this evening. This activity
should continue to work off to our north and east through the
early morning hours. The models are suggesting some MVFR cigs
will develop later tonight into Monday morning, especially at
our northern taf sites. These cigs should lift back up into VFR
through late morning as we start to get some daytime heating. We
will destabilize through the afternoon hours ahead of an
approaching mid level short wave. This will lead to the chance
for thunderstorms development through mid to late afternoon and
continuing into the evening. Will cover this threat with a thunderstorms in the vicinity
at the western taf sites.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
Monday night into Tuesday morning.