Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 290844
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
444 am EDT Thu Jun 29 2017
a warmer and more humid airmass will work into the region on
southerly winds as low pressure in the northern Great Lakes
region drapes a cold front southwest towards Texas on Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase as this front
approaches the Ohio Valley and washes out early Saturday. The
passage of an upper level trough axis will shunt any available
moisture to the east Saturday evening, ending and thunderstorm
activity in the region.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
thickening cloud cover will limit runaway temperatures today as
southwest winds pull in warmer air, with highs reaching the mid
80s. Convective complexes firing along the a drawn out front in
the southern Great Lakes will have a potential of some storms
peeling away and reaching the northern County Warning Area later this afternoon,
but this is a necessary pessimistic forecast. In addition but
possibly more of a threat is the chance for some storms in
southern County Warning Area to heat up enough and break through the cap that
will be in place over the region. Low pops were placed here for
a brief period this afternoon, but this seems to have a higher
potential of occurrence in my opinion even though coverage would
be isolated at best.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
any storm threat will lift northward very quickly this evening,
being driven by insolation and leaving the bulk of the overnight
period dry. Temperatures will be hard pressed to drop much, and
bottom out around 70 in most locations.
Storms will become more numerous on Friday and particularly
overnight as the cold front stretches out as it tries to pass
southeast but ultimately gets washed out over the County Warning Area early
Saturday. High pressure builds in from the west and upper level
energy rotating through the larger scale trough will help shunt
any lingering moisture to the east for a rapid improvement and a
drier latter half of the weekend. Temperatures will never get
the benefit of the passage of a cold front and be near seasonal
normals, but dewpoints on Sunday will be in the lower 60s
versus the less comfortable upper 60s found through Saturday.
While some models are still keeping the boundary over the region
early enough on Sunday to consider some chance of showers or
isolated thunderstorm early in the day southeast of the I-71
corridor, current forecast has limited this even further in
favor of the high pressure in the upper Midwest pushing in drier
Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
we should then dry out Sunday night into Monday. However,
several mid level short waves will push east across the area
through mid week. This will lead to additional chances of
showers and thunderstorms at times through the remainder of the
long term period. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid
Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
convection moving through the Great Lakes will stay north of the
tafs tonight, but it is spreading cirrus blow off into the tafs
for the beginning of the taf period. 800 mb 35-40kt jet will bring
some low level wind shear through 12z.
Scattered cu will develop later this morning as moisture
increases in the broad sly flow. Majority of the models keep
convection to the northwest of the region. A few of the cam's
develop showers across se Ohio/NE Kentucky. Even if these develop the
tafs should remain dry. Sfc pressure gradient increases today,
and will support wind gusts of 20 to 25 kt.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible at times from Friday into
Saturday night and again Monday.