Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 250025
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
725 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017
surface high pressure located off to our east has allowed southerly
winds to return to the area this afternoon. A weak cold front will
move through the Ohio Valley Saturday morning offering only a slight
chance of a shower. High pressure will build in behind the front,
persisting into the middle of the work week, offering continued dry
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
high clouds starting to move into the region and gradient
picking up with the approach of a cold front currently tracking
through Illinois and MO. This fairly quickly moving system will not
bring much in the way of precipitation aside from some potential
for very spotty showers in west central and central Ohio. Low
levels never really moisten up with the approach and passage of
the cold front, but instead moisture drops down into the area in
the form of increased low clouds.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
the surface cold front will clear the forecast area later Saturday
morning with cooler air slowly working into the area. The Heart of
the cold 850 mb air will push into the region Saturday afternoon
into evening. Most of the forecast area will also be cloudy Saturday
afternoon thanks to the mid level disturbance diving southeast out
of Michigan. The clouds working with falling 850 mb temperatures
will likely mean that high temperatures will occur slightly earlier
than the normal diurnal Max and then hold steady/ slightly fall (esp
towards the northwest). Due to this have gone ahead and kept with a
non-diurnal trace for Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday
morning surface high pressure will build into the region from
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
northwest flow at the beginning of the period will become zonal
early next week. A northern stream short wave will pass north of the
region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cold front associated with this
system will approach the northwest counties and then lay out east-
west somewhere near the northern part of the area before lifting
back north. With minimal forcing and lift, it appears that dry
conditions will continue. There will be a warming trend early in the
week with temperatures being quite mild south of the front Tuesday
12z models are in relatively good agreement with the next system. A
closed low emerging into the plains mid week will be progressive as
another trough comes on to the West Coast. The system will be
deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into
Thursday but still bring a chance of showers. High pressure will
build in Friday with temperatures falling back to or a bit below
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
an increasing pressure gradient ahead of a fairly quickly moving
cold front will keep winds up tonight, along with the potential
for 40kts of low level wind shear in the 03-09z period in especially the
northern taf locations. VFR conditions will prevail through the
passage of the cold front in the 11-15z timeframe and then a
Post frontal disturbance will bring in low level moisture in the
form of MVFR ceilings in the 15-22z period, especially
kday/kcmh/klck and to a lesser extent Kiln. This will be a
fairly quick shot of lower level moisture though with kcmh/klck
being the last to lift to VFR around 20-22z.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.