Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 221153
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
753 am EDT Sat Jul 22 2017
multiple disturbances are expected to bring several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the region through the weekend and
into Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system will bring additional
showers and thunderstorms to the region for Thursday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a complex of storms will move across the area this morning.
Heavy rain and the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats with this activity.
After this feature moves through there will be a lull in the
precipitation. This will allow temperatures to rise, especially
across southwestern and southern portions of the forecast area
including locations in the tri-state and along and south of the
Ohio River. The combination of temperatures this afternoon in
the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s will lead to heat index values
in the heat advisory criteria range of 100 to 104 degrees. Since
this is the second day that Hamilton County is expected to
reach these values an excessive heat warning has been issued for
Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop towards
the end of the near term across northern portions of the region.
Severe weather will be possible with damaging winds the primary
threat. In addition heavy rainfall is expected with these
storms. Depending on the amount of rainfall this morning, a
Flash Flood Watch may be needed for this evening and into the
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
thunderstorms will be ongoing across northern portions of the
forecast area at the start of the short term. Thunderstorm
activity will sag southward through the night. Heavy rain and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. Have heavy
rain mention in the forecast and in the severe weather potential statement. Also mention severe
threat in the severe weather potential statement as well.
Activity will decrease towards the end of the night tonight,
however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the day on Sunday. There will be an additional severe threat
during the day on Sunday with damaging winds again the primary
Heat index values on Sunday will be a little lower than today,
however heat index values are still expected to be in the 90s.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
warm and humid conditions will persist at the beginning of the
period. But a cold front will slide through the area on Monday.
There could be a few storms along and ahead of the front. High
pressure will build in behind the front on Tuesday. But as the high
center quickly tracks from the Great Lakes into New England, the
trailing ridge axis will get pinched off by Wednesday. So more humid
conditions will quickly return in advance of an approaching cold
front. This front will move southeast across the area Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night with a good chance of thunderstorms.
Drier air will be slow to filter in at the end of the week.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
showers and some thunderstorms will continue to push through the
region this morning. A lull in the precipitation is then
expected. Winds will increase with some wind gusts around 20
knots this afternoon into the early evening hours. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early this
evening and into the overnight hours. Vsbys and cigs will be
reduced with thunderstorm activity.
Outlook...thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Wednesday.
Ohio...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ohz070-071-078-
Excessive heat warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ohz077.
Kentucky...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for kyz089>100.
In...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for inz058-059-066-