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fxus61 Kiln 171757 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1257 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

moisture associated with low pressure and a cold front will
affect the area today. Drier weather is forecast Wednesday into
Thursday as high pressure moves in behind the cold front. Another
low pressure system will bring showers back into the region late
Thursday through Friday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
cdfnt is pushing through the Whitewater valley into the Miami
Valley attm. Upped pops with the line of showers along the front
to categorical. The line should continue to push east through the
fa late this morning, clearing the eastern counties around 18-20z.

Afternoon highs in the upper 50s to around 60, temperatures will
slowly cool with fropa on a west wind.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
surface high pressure will be moving into the mid Mississippi
Valley tonight while low pressure moves slowly through southeast
Canada. At the same time, low pressure in the upper atmosphere
will travel from Southern Lake Michigan to Northwest Ohio, keeping
a chance of showers in the forecast.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry weather
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Dry conditions will persist into
Thursday when the high is forecast to move to the Appalachians.
The next area of low pressure will be arriving from the southwest
later on Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and a chance of
showers to southern locations by Thursday evening.

Temperatures will remain above normal. Highs Wednesday will be
reduced into the 40s by cold advection. A rebound to near 50 will
occur Thursday due to warm advection in advance of the next low.


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
high amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail
through the period. Upper low in the plains will open up as it
pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio
Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in
the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into
Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much
above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper
low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then
turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot
rule out a bit of thunder as well.


Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
cdfnt is in the vicinity of I-71 at the start of the taf period.
Some clear spots around the front have allowed the cigs to jump to
VFR. However cigs are dropping back to MVFR behind the front. So
have a tempo group for the first hour of the tafs to take care of
this situation.

Cigs will lower as the afternoon progresses and could reach IFR
at some spots after 00z. Meanwhile, an approaching 500 mb vort will
increase the positive vorticity advection aft 00z and will give the chance of scattered
rain showers. Carried a vcsh at the tafs between 00z and 12z. Tafs get
into area of negative vorticity advection tomorrow, so ended the vcsh around 12z, but time
sections are showing that low level moisture will be trapped,
thus kept MVFR cigs.

Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible into Thursday. MVFR/ IFR
ceilings are again possible Thursday night into Sunday.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...



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