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fxus61 Kiln 260550 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1250 am EST sun Feb 26 2017

in the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
build in the Midwest and settle south of the Ohio Valley
tonight. Zonal upper level flow and southerly surface flow will
then combine to permit a moisture feed from the Gulf, and a
disturbance moving with the zonal flow aloft will initiate
showers over the region Sunday night and Monday. A weakly
inverted trough at the surface will help move these showers
northward on Monday.


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
satellite imagery shows back edge of clouds moving into
southwest counties. Warm air advection in the low levels
overnight will result in clouds clearing across the entire
region. It appears that this will occur a bit quicker along and
south of the Ohio River. But most everywhere will be clear by
daybreak. Some light scattered flurries along and north of I-70
will continue until clouds diminish. Temperatures will drop off
later tonight, although wind may keep readings from bottoming
out too far. Still expecting lower to mid 20s area wide.


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/...
the break in the cloud cover Sunday with seasonal temperatures
will see increased cloud cover overnight with Gulf moisture
streaming through and pooling over the Ohio Valley. A weak
shortwave in the mean westerly flow will help wring out showers
from southwest to northeast, possibly beginning overnight Sunday
but likely holding off until the daytime hours Monday. Low
chance pops will increase after midnight and spread from the
southwest to the northeast overnight. Temperatures will only
drop into the 30s with weak warm advection and southerly flow
overnight. Precipitation type should be all rain.


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
an upper level disturbance will move across the region on Monday.
Temperature profiles suggest that although precipitation will start
out as a rain and snow mix, as warmer air works into the region
precipitation will change over to all rain. After this feature
moves through there will be a brief lull in the precipitation until
moisture is drawn up into the region Monday night into Tuesday. Did
not go quite as high as the superblend during this time due to lack
of substantial forcing. Due to having less precipitation went
slightly higher on temperatures for Tuesday.

With a surge of warm air in advance of the next system, well above
normal temperatures will continue for Wednesday. Have better
precipitation chances on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low
pressure system and associated cold front approach and move through.
There is some instability and therefore also have some thunder
chances with this system. Temperatures will dip down into the 30s
with the passage of the cold front. Increased winds with this
system as model soundings are indicating some higher wind gusts. Did
not go as high as some of the model outputs were suggesting, however
trended away from superblend towards some higher gusts.

Some residual precipitation will be possible on Thursday with cooler
temperatures with trough in place. Went colder than superblend on
Friday as models are consistent with cold pattern in place. An
upper level disturbance is expected to work down into the region on
Friday. There are some model differences in the exact placement in
this feature however with cold air in place expect any precipitation
to be in the form of snow.

Temperatures begin to moderate for Saturday as southerly flow
develops. Dry conditions are expected during this time with high
pressure situated southeast of the region.


Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure will continue to build up into the Ohio Valley
through this morning. Skies have been clearing from the
southwest and this trend should continue through the pre dawn
hours. We will start to get into some return flow as the high
pushes off to the east later this afternoon and into tonight.
This will eventually lead to an increase in some mid level
cloudiness toward the end of the taf period.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday into
Wednesday and then again on Thursday. Wind gusts up to 30 kt
possible Thursday.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...



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