Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 201906
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
306 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017
high pressure will shift off to the east through the weekend.
This will lead to dry conditions Saturday and Sunday with a
gradual increase in cloudiness. A cold front will move through
the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing the next chance
Near term /through tonight/...
surface high pressure will shift off to the east through tonight.
This will allow for some cirrus to drift overhead at times, but
still expect mainly clear skies overnight. With light winds, we
should see another night of decent radiational cooling. Lows
tonight will in the upper 40s to lower 50s although some mid
40s will be possible in some of the outlying areas of the east.
Short term /Saturday through Saturday night/...
mid level ridging across the eastern United States will begin
to gradually break down Saturday into Saturday night as
troughing over the central United States shifts east. The airmass
will remain dry across our area through Saturday night so
outside of some occasional cirrus, expect mainly clear skies.
Thermal fields drop off a tad on Saturday, but with a little
airmass modification, will go with highs again mainly in the mid
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
highly amplified pattern will occur through the week. Low pressure
will close off over the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday with
still some variation in the 12z model suite on how quickly this will
open up and lift northeast as it gets absorbed into a developing
long wave trough.
The entire progression has slowed enough that there will be one more
dry and unseasonably warm day on Sunday. Showers may start to
encroach on the western counties by later Sunday night. While
details may differ, there is enough agreement in guidance to expect
showers to become widespread across the entire region during the day
Monday and continuing Monday night.
Showers may linger into Tuesday with additional scattered activity
possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, mainly across the
northern counties, as the deep trough translates across the region.
Temperatures will tumble with highs on Wednesday around 10 degrees
The trough will be progressive and lift northeast on Thursday. This
will allow for some ridging in advance of the next deep trough that
will be developing in the central part of the continent. So it will
dry out, although temperatures will remain a bit below normal.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
surface high pressure will shift slowly off to the east through
the taf period. This will keep our area dry with just some high
cirrus clouds at times. With mostly clear skies and light winds
tonight, expect areas of mainly valley fog once again tonight,
primarily affecting kluk.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night