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fxus61 Kiln 160922 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
422 am EST Mon Jan 16 2017

a frontal boundary stalled to our south will push north as a warm
front today, allowing for milder temperatures and a chance for
showers. Low pressure and a trailing cold front will push through
the region on Tuesday, offering more showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm. In the wake of this front, there will be a return
to more seasonable temperatures for midweek with warmer air to
return by the end of the week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
weak isentropic lift pivoting north through iln/S forecast area early this
morning. Best coverage across the north, so have a mention of
chance pops early and with temperatures at or below freezing have
a mention of very light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.

Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast across the Central Plains
today. Ahead if this system, mid level ridge to build over the
Ohio Valley today which should active to limit pcpn coverage.
Highs today to range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper
50s south.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight and across the Great Lakes

Expect an enhanced threat for pcpn developing night with nose of
50 kt low level jet and axis of deep moisture coming into play.
Have categorical pops developing overnight. Elevated instability
develops into the west late, so also have a mention of thunder.

Expect non-diurnal temperatures tonight, with lows from the lower
40s north to the lower/mid 50s south.

Surface cold front to push through Tuesday afternoon with a
continued threat of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, especially
over the southeast. On the warm side of the system, expect highs
on Tuesday to be around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the
mid 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast.

In split flow pattern a second mid/upper level S/W to pivot thru the
Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will keep the threat of
a shower across mainly the northern counties into early
Wednesday. Cooler temperatures Tuesday night with lows from the
mid 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. Highs on Wednesday to
be cooler but still running 7 to 10 degrees above normal. Expect
readings to range from the lower 40s NW to near 50 se.


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
trough will be moving out at the beginning of the period. High
pressure will then build in and quickly head off to the east.
Southerly flow on the back side of the high combined with rising
upper heights will result in much above normal temperatures. Tail
end of a short wave lifting north through the Mississippi Valley
will bring some showers to the area on Friday. Approaching low
pressure will result in more showers on Sunday.


Aviation /09z Monday through Friday/...
area is in a moist easterly flow between high pressure to the
east and low pressure to the west. Low levels are particularly
moist, and with flight conditions as poor as vlifr the result.
Those conditions will linger in the slowly evolving weather
regime. Expect only gradual improvement to MVFR during daylight
hours, with IFR or worse likely again after 00z Tuesday as
moisture advection increases in advance of the low. Rain showers
in the vicinity may become more widespread at cvg by 12z Tuesday.
Winds will become southeast while speeds stay under 10 knots.

Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...



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