Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 280530
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
130 am EDT sun may 28 2017
with warm and moist air over the Ohio Valley, there will be
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. After a cold front moves through the region Sunday
night, drier conditions are expected for Monday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
strong to severe storms have developed this afternoon across
northern Kentucky and south central Ohio in a moderately unstable
airmass where blyr cape are 2000-2500 j/kg.
These storms were highly defendant on this instability with
lack of significant forcing. Therefore, with the loss of
daytime heating storm coverage and intensity has diminished.
Therefore the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to
expire. Have kept a very low pop of a scattered to isold
storm across the south through late tonight.
As the front begins to shift northeast late tonight have
spread pops north and increased to high chance category. A
good deal of uncertainty exists regarding timing and placement
so have kept pops in chance category with the highest pops
across the southwest.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/...
the warm front will lift north across our area through the
morning hours with some scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible along it. As the front lifts north of our area, expect
to see a lull in pcpn through early afternoon. However, as we
destabilize through the afternoon, additional shower and
thunderstorms development will be possible from late afternoon
into Sunday night. Deep layer shear values will increase
through the day on Sunday, so severe storms will be possible
once again, especially across our south.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
weak short waves and limited moisture may combine to produce a few
showers on Monday. Development of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible mainly over eastern locations on Tuesday when a weak cold
front is forecast to form along the upper Ohio Valley. Additional
showers and thunderstorms may occur Wednesday as more short wave
energy rounds the base of a broad upper trough. Dry conditions are
expected Thursday under high pressure. Thunderstorms chances return
Friday when another batch of short wave energy is forecast to arrive
on a northwest upper flow. Thunderstorms may linger Saturday and
Sunday as moisture and convergence increase on the southwest flow
ahead of a slow moving cold front trailing Canadian low pressure.
Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the period,
with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions are currently in place at all taf sites, and
thunderstorms no longer appear like they will move into the area
later during the overnight hours. Some MVFR ceilings and
visibilities, however, will be possible.
After conditions return to VFR by mid-morning Sunday, attention
will turn to chances for showers and storms during the mid
afternoon into the evening hours. Where storms occur, MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty winds will be possible.
Clearing is expected behind the storms, with VFR conditions
going into the overnight period.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.