Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 141145
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
645 am EST Thu Dec 14 2017
high pressure will build into the area today and move off to the
east tonight. A weak cold front will brush the region late
Friday. Southerly winds will become established over the weekend
which will bring temperatures closer to normal.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
winds have been decreasing and will continue to do so into the
early morning. Thereafter, speeds through the day should be
around 10 mph.
Satellite imagery shows breaks in the low clouds pushing south
across the western part of the forecast area. Appears that The
Breaks may just be transient at first with clouds predominating
through most if not all of the morning. Low clouds will
eventually erode but there will be an increase in high clouds
late in the day.
Temperatures will continue to fall into early to mid morning.
Then there will be a slow rise. Forecast highs are on the cool
side of guidance.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
high pressure over the region at the start of the period will
quickly move off to the southeast. Winds will be light and
variable. The exception will be in northwest counties where
winds will become southerly before daybreak. With temperatures
not being all that warm to start, readings could drop off
quickly in northern counties before high to mid clouds become
more extensive there. Given forecast winds and clouds, expect
temperatures to not follow normal diurnal pattern tonight.
Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Friday with a
trailing cold front brushing the forecast area later in the day.
This could be enough to generate a few snow showers or perhaps
just flurries across the northern tier of counties. Although
winds will be south to southwest, not a lot of warming will be
going on ahead of the boundary. There should be quite a bit of
clouds across all but far southern counties through the day.
Stayed at or a bit below guidance for highs.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
dry conditions will start out the long term Friday night through
Saturday night. A weak upper level disturbance will be pulling out
of the region at the start of the long term. The next chance for
precipitation will be on Sunday as a disturbance moves across the
region. Along and north of Interstate 70 some snowfall may mix in
with rain showers, however the rest of the area will likely just see
rain. Another upper level disturbance will move through on Monday
keeping precipitation chances in the forecast. Precipitation will
taper off Monday evening.
Dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of the long term
Monday night through Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into
Temperatures will be generally pretty close to normal values for
this time of the year.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
MVFR deck across most of the region will gradually decrease
through the day, generally from northwest to southeast. Bases
will slowly lift as well, so those areas below 2000 ft will lift
above that level and some places will lift to VFR before
scattering. Northwest winds will decrease to 5 to 10 kt early in
the period. Winds will become light and variable and start to
come around to the south late in the period. Once the lower deck
decreases, VFR will prevail with extensive high clouds.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible Sunday into Monday.