Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 Kiln 240202 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1002 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

a cold front will drop southeast across the area this evening
and will interact with the moisture from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Cindy. This will produce periods of heavy rain
this afternoon into tonight. Behind the system, temperatures
will drop below normal for the weekend and into early next week.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
cold front is crossing cwa, while Tropical Depression Cindy was
centered over east central Kentucky and is forecast to eject
northeast tonight. Latest surface analysis shows quicker
movement and a track that is farther south than models had

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished greatly in coverage
from the northwest as drier air works in. With heavy rain
shifting southeast, have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for
locations from iln to the north border of the County Warning Area. Will continue
Flash Flood Watch a bit longer for southern counties where
moisture transport and convergence are still favorable.

An upper level trough axis is pushing directly overhead. As
this occurs the cold front will move across the area late this
evening, bringing an end to precip. The cold front will then
clear the area early Saturday morning. Right behind the cold
front winds will pickup briefly as strong cold air advection moves in.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
during the day Saturday surface high pressure over the Midwest
will slowly nudge into the area with pwats plummeting from 2.22"
to less than 0.80" by Saturday evening. During the day Saturday
some high res models are indicating some pop up showers possible
but looking at forecast soundings shows that there will likely
not be enough moisture for this. Overall have kept precipitation
out of the forecast for Saturday. High temperatures Saturday
will be in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints falling off into
the upper 50s.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
mean mid level trof over the Great Lakes with surface high pressure
nosing into the Ohio Valley this weekend. A few showers or
thunderstorms will be possible across the north during the afternoon
Sunday. Cool temperatures look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
with highs on Sunday from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s far

Mean trof becomes more amplified over the area, so a contd threat of
showers or thunderstorms will be continued Monday. Cool temperatures
to continue with mondays highs expected to be in the lower 70s.

Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow
increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s.

The European model (ecmwf) and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through
the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an
increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance.

Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes
which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the
northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday
with highs generally in the mid 70s.

Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing
on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming
trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday
in the lower 80s.

Westerly flow aloft with surface wave tracking through the northern
Great Lakes. This will allow an associated surface front to drop
south into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Have limited
pops to chance category with the highest pops northwest Thursday. On
the warm side of this system, expect temperatures to reach highs in
the lower and middle 80s Thursday.

Another progressive wave and associated frontal boundary expected to
approach from the west increasing thunderstorm chances Friday into
Friday night. Model solution strength and timing differences exist
regarding this system. Due to this spread, uncertainty


Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
flight conditions are being affected by a cold front interacting
with Tropical Depression Cindy. As Cindy tracks through eastern
Kentucky and the cold front sags farther south, widespread
heavy rain is now translating east of taf sites. Ceilings as low
as IFR may linger for a short time, before drier air works in
during the overnight hours, leaving VFR ceilings. Visibility may
be reduced later tonight at luk and iln due to very moist
air trapped near the ground following the rain.

Expect VFR on Saturday under a dry westerly flow ahead of a
large area of high pressure extending from the northwest. Winds
may gust close to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Outlook...intermittent MVFR ceilings possible through Tuesday.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...Flash Flood Watch until 2 am EDT Saturday for ohz073-074-
Kentucky...Flash Flood Watch until 2 am EDT Saturday for kyz089>100.
In...Flash Flood Watch until 2 am EDT Saturday for inz073>075-080.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations