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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
156 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Synopsis...
an upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will
dominate the weather over the weekend before finally breaking
down at the beginning of next week. Hot and humid conditions are
expected through the weekend with heat index values above 100
degrees. Periods of storms will form through the weekend due to
the high levels of moisture. The chance for precipitation
increases early next week with the expected passage of a cold
front.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
cu field has developed early this afternoon but expect that it
will slowly scatter out through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening hours. Areal obs show most locations have reached into the
upper 80s already, with only a few places still in the mid 80s,
especially where there are higher dewpoints. Nevertheless, temps
are still on track for the lower 90s area wide, so expect that
heat indices should still near or exceed 100 degrees by late
afternoon.

Despite large amounts on instby, the cap will likely hold with
lack of focused lift/forcing across the area. Therefore, have
trimmed back pops even further to account for this, keeping just
a slight chance for several hours during peak heating late this
afternoon.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
isold storms which develop in the heating of the day will quickly
dissipate this evening. Expect the remainder of the night to stay
dry with humid lows in the lower and middle 70s.

Another hot and humid day for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s
and heat indices of 100 to 103 degrees. Have mentioned these hot
conditions with the expectation that additional heat headlines
may be required.

Again a good deal of uncertainty exists regarding convection on
Sunday. With the upper level ridge sliding east into the Ohio
Valley would not be surprised if the area remains dry. Have
limited pops to 15 percent (slight chance) during the afternoon
with a lack of forcing.

Shortwave energy moving thru the Great Lakes flattens the northern
portion of the ridge with a surface cold front pushing into the
area Monday. Have introduced high chance pops into the NW late
Sunday night and then spread these pops across the entire cwa
Monday. Due to clouds and pcpn temperatures will be slightly cooler
Monday ranging from the upper 80s NW to the lower 90s se.

&&

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
Tuesday into Wednesday the front will remained stalled just south
of the area and slowly start to wash out. Even behind the front
though 850 temperatures are forecasted to be around 18 degrees c
so am expecting temperatures near climo. Late Wednesday into
Thursday a shortwave will approach the area from the west finally
washing the leftover stationary front out. As this happens higher
pwats will again wash over the area with 2.00" + values moving in.
Have trended pops up towards the end of the long term to account
for this.

&&

Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
cu field has developed this morning and afternoon, but expect
that it will slowly scatter out through 00z Sunday. VFR conditions
will continue through the early overnight period before calm
winds and a very moist airmass once again allow br to create visibility
restrictions in the 08-12z time frame. Expect that visibility
restrictions will be greatest at kluk, with tempo MVFR vsbys
likely for kcvg, kday, Kiln, kcmh, and klck.

Expect that mid/high level clouds will be on the increase from the
northwest after 12z Sunday, but ceilings/vsbys will remain VFR for the
end of the taf period. There remains uncertainty regarding
potential shower/storm development on Sunday, so refrained from
including at this time. Light winds will continue out of the south
on Sunday.

Outlook...thunderstorms possible Sunday through Monday and again
Thursday.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ohz026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088.
Excessive heat warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ohz061-
077.
Kentucky...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for kyz089>100.
In...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for inz050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Arkansas
near term...kc
short term...Arkansas
long term...Haines
aviation...kc

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