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fxus61 Kiln 250021 
afdiln

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
821 PM EDT Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis...
an unsettled pattern will be present across the region through
the week. An area of low pressure will meander across the region
through Thursday. Multiple systems will then work across the
area Friday through Tuesday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
an area of low pressure will move into the region this
evening. Showers and some thunderstorms will rotate around this
feature. Precipitation may be heavy at times. With low LCLs
cannot rule out some tornado potential through the early evening
hours. Will continue to mention the severe threat in the severe weather potential statement and
added additional flash flood risk wording across western
portions of the region.

&&

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible
on Thursday as an area of low pressure meanders across the
region. With the cloud cover associated with the low,
temperatures will struggle to rise and are only expected to make
it into the middle 60s.

As the low moves off out of the area precipitation chances will
taper off Thursday night.

&&

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
mid level ridging will push east across the region through the day
on Friday leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. As
the ridge pushes east, a developing southwesterly flow pattern will
allow for occasional mid level short waves to cross the area through
the weekend. This will result in a chance of showers an
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with highs both days in the upper
70s.

An upper level low will slowly drop down across the northern Great
Lakes through early next week. As it does, some weak energy will
rotate around it, bringing some lower chances of precipitation
through the rest of the long term period. Temperatures will also
cool off a bit with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s through
Wednesday.

&&

Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
an area of low pressure will continue to pull north towards
kcvg/ kday this evening with widespread MVFR cigs expected.
Sref probabilities also continue to hint at IFR possible by
Thursday morning which looks likely across the Kiln/ kday/ kcvg/
kluk tafs. Thursday afternoon the upper level low and surface
low will pull east of the area with the chance of rain remaining
as low level lapse rates and moisture remain supportive.

Outlook...MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Thursday with MVFR
visibilities possible. MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a
chance of thunderstorms possible Friday night into Sunday.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ohz042-060-070-
077.
Kentucky...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for kyz089>096.
In...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for inz050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Haines/Novak

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