Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 Kiln 220540 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
140 am EDT sun Apr 22 2018

high pressure will push slowly east across the Great Lakes
region through Sunday. This will provide for dry conditions and
slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. An
upper level low pressure system moving out of the Mississippi
Valley will bring a chance of showers for the start of the work


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
extensive high cloud cover will continue through the night with
the potential for some thinning in the northern counties before
daybreak. Just made a few minor downward adjustments to
temperatures in the normally cooler locations.


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/...
the 500 mb low out in the srn plains will continue to drift east on
Sunday. Upper ridge across the region continues to gets squeezed,
but manages to remain over the fa. Thicker part of the cirrus clouds
shift south during the day Sunday, providing a some hints of
sunshine. Temperatures will get close to normals as they reach the
mid 60s, and maybe the upper 60s in the southeast.

Sunday night the rain associated with the upper low starts to
lift north. Consensus of the models to keep the region dry, so
removed the slight chance pops across the far south.


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
an upper level low will approach and meander around the area Monday
through Wednesday. This will allow for extensive cloud cover. Off
and on rain showers will be present during this time. There is some
instability along and south of the Ohio River on Tuesday and
therefore have a chance of thunderstorms in across this area during
this time.

High pressure will then be present Thursday into Friday morning.
Went close to the slower European model (ecmwf) solution with a system moving through
Friday night into Saturday bringing additional showers to the region.

High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s through the
extended. Lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s across most


Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
mid to high level clouds will persist through tonight with VFR
conditions expected through the taf period.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations