Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
141 am EDT Friday Aug 26 2016

Synopsis...
a weak frontal boundary will drop south through the region tonight into
Friday. This will bring temporary relief from the heat on Friday.
However, an upper ridge building back over the weekend will keep
temperatures above normal.

&&

Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity back across Indiana has
been progressing east this evening but weakening as it does. This
is in line with most of the hi res models which keep our area
primarily dry overnight. There is a narrow cu field stretching
from near Indianapolis to north of Columbus so suppose it is
tough to rule out a stray shower developing across our northwest
as we head into the overnight hours. However, think the chance is
low enough to go with a dry forecast tonight. Expect lows tonight
ranging from the mid to upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s in
the south.

&&

Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday night/...
on Friday, high pressure will be trying to build in. Once again a
few outlying models try to pop some showers on Friday. Prefer to
follow the consensus and go with a dry forecast. Will increase
cloud cover however. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler,
ranging from the mid 80s in the north to around 90 along the Ohio
River.

Friday night into Saturday the 500 mb ridge will build back to the
north into the region. This will allow for the heat and humidity
to build back in a little. Went dry for Saturday, but bumped highs
back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
large area of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. Will keep a
westerly flatten out as a shortwave crosses north of the Great Lakes
region on Sunday night. West-southwest flow at this level will turn
westerly through the early part of the week and then the tropical
system muddies the forecast significantly. European bombs the low
into the Florida Panhandle whereas the GFS barely scratches the
surface pressure field and wpc forecasts are trending towards a much
weaker surface field with the positioning of the European
circulation.

Regardless of the tropical evolution, a surface boundary should
migrate from the I-70 corridor on Monday towards the Ohio River
vicinity by mid week. A stronger cold front is expected to push
through the region on Wednesday as a large area of surface high
pressure builds in Canada. This specific evolution remains to be
seen and is likely to see large forecast shifts between now and then.

Numerical guidance is not showing much of a day to day change with
mid 80s to low 90s for highs and overnight lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s. Diurnal heating would maximize the thunderstorm threats in
the late day, but the presence of a surface boundary and moist
airmass may necessitate keeping some low chance of storms through
the overnight hours.

&&

Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
slow moving cold front is across Northern Ohio. Humid airmass in
place south of the front is forecast to cause a few problems for
aviators this morning. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to
be reduced as low as IFR early this morning. Isolated showers may
not impact taf sites. Look for improvement back to VFR by 14z,
with VFR continuing through the end of the forecast under weak
high pressure. Winds will remain light, with direction changing
from northwest to northeast by the end of the forecast period.

Outlook...thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...hatzos/sites
near term...jgl
short term...sites
long term...franks
aviation...coniglio

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations