Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 231049
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
649 am EDT Sat Jun 23 2018
a chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist today as low
pressure moves to Lake Erie. A disturbance traveling through
Kentucky may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday. Drier conditions are expected Monday under high
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1005 mb low pressure will be moving to the vicinity of Lake
Erie today. Showers and thunderstorms developing in the
persistently moist circulation around the low will affect
locations mainly along and north of I-70, closer to bulk of
moisture and forcing. Decreasing precipitable water values and weak Cape
Point to a diminished flood threat compared to recent days. High
temperatures in this relatively cool airmass will reach the
upper 70s to around 80.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
for tonight, as the low weakens and continues its eastward
progression, there will be little to no precip under shallow
moisture and weak forcing. On Sunday, an upper air disturbance
tracking across Kentucky, coupled with increasing instability,
will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over
southern counties. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
mid level shortwave which drops through the region may produce a few
lingering showers/thunderstorms Sunday evening, mainly across iln/S
Mid level ridging and surface high pressure to build across the area
early next week offering dry weather Monday into Tuesday. Expect
highs Monday to range from 80 north to 85 south. Temperatures warm a
few degrees Tuesday, with highs from the lower 80s north to the
upper 80s south.
Mid level S/W to track through the Great Lakes at mid week with
associated warm front providing a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday. Will continue to introduce low chance pops
late in the day Tuesday and then increase to high chance Wednesday.
Warm temperatures are forecast for Wednesday with highs in the mid
and upper 80s.
Mid level ridge to build to our west builds to our west. Numerical
models continue to point toward a potential active weather period
for ridge riding storms in the northwest flow around the periphery
of this ridge next Thursday. Very warm temperatures with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to around 90.
Will continue to mention a chance of thunderstorms Friday around the
periphery of the mid level ridge as it builds into the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys Friday. Very warm temperatures with highs generally in the
lower 90s Friday.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
taf sites continue to be affected by moisture circulating
around slow moving low pressure. Ceilings will fall as low as
IFR early in the forecast, rising back to VFR by around 17z.
Showers may occur in the vicinity this morning at all sites.
Kept vcsh through the afternoon at cmh and lck as the low tracks
to Northern Ohio. Winds will gradually shift from south to
southwest, with speeds as high as 13 knots. VFR is expected at
cvg near the end of their 30 hour taf.
Outlook...showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday.