Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 262114
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
414 PM EST sun Feb 26 2017
a weak upper level disturbance will cross east through the Ohio
Valley tonight and early Monday, initiating a period of rain
along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. A low pressure system
over the upper Midwest on Tuesday will lift a warm front through
the Ohio Valley. As the low crosses into Canada from the Great
Lakes region, a cold front will drop southeast into the Gulf of
Mexico and see showers and thunderstorms develop along it
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
increasing cloud cover will be the rule tonight over the Ohio
Valley. As this moisture streams in, some light rain will
develop, primarily southeast of Cincinnati towards daybreak. Min
temperatures tonight will be milder and above the freezing mark
in the middle to upper 30s.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
light rain will overspread the region Monday with the possible
exception of areas north and west of Metro Dayton. The low level
jet riding northeast along the I-71 corridor and shortwave
moving east will see the chance for rain increase in this area
during the morning, then taper off early in the afternoon as
these forcing mechanisms exit the immediate area. Models were
trying to mix in some snow with this rain early on Monday but
the warmer processes occurring over above-freezing surface
temperatures has ME remove this potential solution entirely.
Highs on Monday will range from 50-55 in most locations.
As the rain tapers off late in the day another stream of
moisture will necessitate an increased chance for showers
overnight, spreading from west to east. The warmer temperatures
moving in with this secondary system will have overnight
minimums in the 40s over the County Warning Area.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Tuesday continues the active pattern with a surface low and
deepening trough over the northern plains approaches the area.
With increasing moisture and instability over the region, onset
of showers on Tuesday morning with a warm front lifting through
the area and increasing moisture. The uncertainty will be in
precipitation onset, and just how quickly the region will
saturate and coinciding with the cyclogenesis pushing into the
area. Some potential for strong storms with increasing
instability and bulk shear.
Tuesday night sets up a strong low level jet streak pushing into the Ohio
Valley, bringing a setup for potentially heavy rain with most
solutions toward an along and south of the Ohio River solution for
the heaviest rainfall. Efficient moisture transport/precipitable
water values above the 90th percentile and a stalled boundary, and
with a setup blocking ridge off the southeast coast. The main question is
in the details of exactly where the boundary will stall out before
finally kicking east of the area Wednesday night bringing a cold
front through the region bringing dry conditions through Thursday
morning before a clipper system pushes through the region late
Thursday into Friday. System begins as a rain/snow mix before all
snow showers Thursday night as the system pushes through the area.
Dry and seasonable conditions through the weekend.
Aviation /21z Sunday through Friday/...
slowed the timing of the cloud cover in the taf groups and do
not have cigs or vsbys drop into the MVFR category until
shortly before daybreak at kcvg/kluk with the onset of any light
rain. Held off on prevailing rain for the remaining taf sites
and have vcsh starting at 14z with MVFR cigs. Expect VFR
conditions until rain begins tomorrow.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday into
Wednesday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities along with wind gusts to 30 kts will be
possible on Wednesday and late Thursday.