Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 250540
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
140 am EDT Mon Sep 25 2017
an upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid
week. This will bring dry and warm weather conditions to the
region. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end
of the week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
thin high clouds will continue to drift northwest across the
area through the night. Winds will be light again. Forecast lows
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
on Monday 500 mb ridge weakens from the south, due to the presence
of Hurricane Maria. This should allow for additional cirrus
clouds to affect the region. There still should be enough solar
insolation to push highs to around 90 again. The ridge, although
weaker, will hold again Monday night. Lows will be a little
warmer, ranging from 60 to 65.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
warm and above normal temperatures will continue for Tuesday
and Wednesday with high temperatures in the 80s to around 90. A
cold front will work into the region on Wednesday. Moisture is
very limited with this system and therefore limited any
precipitation to a slight chance generally northwest of
Interstate 71. There is some limited instability therefore have
a thunder mention in as well. Any isolated precipitation will
taper off by the evening hours.
This front will usher in cooler air with highs in the 70s on
Thursday. There are model differences with how strong the
trough is on Friday. Most model solutions keep the area dry or
limit precipitation to northern portions of the region. Went
with a slight chance of showers generally along and north of
Interstate 70. This will usher in another shot of cooler air
with highs on Friday around 70 and highs Saturday and Sunday
generally in the 60s. Some lingering showers will be possible on
Saturday and therefore went with a slight chance across most of
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
surface high pressure is again off to our northeast with only
some cirrus moving overhead. This morning there will likely be
more transient visibility restrictions at kluk which will
quickly lift around sunrise. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through the taf issuance.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.