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FXUS61 KILN 300204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1004 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

A series of weak upper level disturbances will lead to the 
possibility of a few showers or thunderstorms through mid 
week. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable through the 
week with daytime highs in the 70s.


Mid level shortwave has led to 30-35kt low level jet. This
feature along with weak elevated instby of 500-1000 cape has led
to widely scattered convection. Dcape up to 800 j/kg was leading 
to gusty winds. Expect brief heavy rain, cloud to ground
lightning and ind gusts up to 40 mph from a few of the stronger
storms before weakening in next hour or two. Have held onto
slight chance pops through most of the night with sfc trof dropping
ese thru the FA. Expect lows generally between 55 and 60. 


A weak surface ridge will push quickly east across the mid Ohio
Valley through the day on Tuesday. This should help keep us 
mainly dry through the daytime period and slightly cooler with 
highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest to the upper 70s in 
the far southeast.

Additional short wave energy rotating around an upper level low
over the northern Great Lakes will work across our area Tuesday
night. This will be accompanied by some weak isentropic lift. 
However, moisture is still somewhat limited so will keep pops in
the lower chance category. Instability is also marginal and 
with it being nighttime, will limit pcpn to just showers.


The chance for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday as 
a cold front moves east. High pressure following on the northwest 
upper flow will provide dry weather through early Thursday. Showers 
and thunderstorms may return Thursday night along a developing 
frontal boundary. The front is then forecast to become nearly 
parallel to the flow aloft, resulting in slow movement. Persistent 
moisture and convergence along the boundary will allow the threat for 
showers and thunderstorms to continue Friday through Saturday and 
Sunday, until a vigorous low pressure system disrupts the pattern. 
After the low and cold front move east, high pressure should bring 
drier conditions on Monday.

Temperatures are forecast to stay relatively close to normal, with 
highs mainly in the 70s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.


Widely scattered showers developed across northern and central 
Ohio in response to weak surface trof. These showers weakening 
and diminishing in coverage with only a few showers remaining. A
few showers will continue but are expected to remain north of 
the taf sites through the evening. Expect mainly mid and high 
level clouds overnight with mid level cigs likely late. Some 
patchy fog will be a possibility at KLUK but due to uncertainty 
have omitted any mention in forecast. Otherwise, expect VFR 
conditions through the period with scattered cumulus clouds on 

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday.





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