Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
358 PM EDT sun Oct 23 2016
as precipitation associated with a Great Lakes low stays north of
the area, dry weather is forecast for tonight. The dry pattern is
expected to continue Monday into Wednesday as high pressure builds
from the northwest. Potent low pressure tracking across the Great
Lakes will bring the likelihood for showers Wednesday night and
Near term /through tonight/...
surface high pressure is centered over the southeast conus, with
weak low pressure moving to Lake Michigan on a northwest flow
aloft. With most forcing and lift confined to the north side of
the low, the iln area should remain free from precip tonight as
the low scoots eastward through the southern Great Lakes to New
York state. Cloud cover will likely increase in limited lift and
moisture convergence, and it should be more prevalent in
northeast counties closer to the weak low. Overnight lows will be
kept up in the upper 40s by the cloud cover and by mixing
resulting from winds of 5 to 10 knots.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
weak low pressure will be near the New England coast Monday
morning, with an extensive area of surface high pressure moving
back in on on northwest upper flow. Dry weather is indicated
Monday through Tuesday night when the high will be shifting slowly
eastward. Though no showers are expected, clouds will increase
Tuesday in isentropic lift well ahead of developing low pressure
over the north central states.
High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday
will be followed by lows in the mid 30s to around 40 Monday night,
allowing patchy frost to form. Highs Tuesday recovering to the
mid 50s to low 60s will be limited by the cool start and by the
increasing cloud cover.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
numerical model solutions continue to show a progressive mid level
shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
at mid week. Some timing differences exist with the solutions but
Wednesday night looks to be the best threat for rain and have
continued likely pops then. Wednesday's high temperatures to range
from the mid 50s north to the upper 60s south. Precipitation to end
from west to east Thursday with highs from the upper 50s north to
the middle 60s south.
Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a
return to dry weather conditions. Highs to range from the upper 50s
north to the mid 60s south.
Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Model solns
showing differences in strength and timing. Have held off any
precipitation until late Saturday night. On warm side of this system
and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect
temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to
range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south. Will
spread pops across the entire forecast area Saturday when the low and
associated front is expected to impact the area. Have opted to go
with more progressive solution ending precipitation Sunday but if the
system is slower then pops will be required.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the day today, with skies
remaining generally clear. Southwesterly winds will shift to the
west as the day GOES on, eventually increasing in intensity.
During the 18z-00z time frame, some gusts to the 20-25 knot range
will be possible.
Winds will continue to shift overnight, moving from westerly to
north-northwesterly. Eventually, low clouds are expected to move
into the area from the north. Some of these clouds will likely be
MVFR, and MVFR ceilings have been included for kcmh/klck (under
2kft) and kday/Kiln (under 3kft). There is a chance that MVFR
ceilings may also reach Cincinnati, but this is not yet certain
enough to include in the tafs. The timing for MVFR ceilings
appears most likely between 10z-15z.
VFR conditions are expected on Monday once the ceilings lift.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.