Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
150 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
a stalled frontal boundary will provide the focus for
thunderstorm development today through Wednesday. Thunderstorm
chances will persist Thursday and Friday when a wave of low
pressure is forecast to bring enhanced lift along the boundary.
High temperatures in the middle and upper 80s today and Wednesday
will fall slightly to the lower to middle 80s by Friday under
clouds, precipitation and modest cold advection.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
area of convection continues to fire across central Indiana north
of a stalled sfc boundary. Earlier model runs were suggesting that
the front would be farther south and therefore the convection
would affect nrn Kentucky more than srn in and srn Ohio. It now looks like
the front will stay in srn OH, so upped pops across southeast in and srn
Ohio and raised pops in Dayton area into the middle Scioto valley,
while lowering pops a little for nrn Kentucky.
Kept previous highs in the 80s. Lower 80s area expected in the
Whitewater valley with temperatures becoming warmer in the Scioto
valley and nrn Kentucky.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
frontal boundary will be gradually sagging southward through
Kentucky tonight through Wednesday. Thunderstorms may still
develop in the persistently moist and unstable airmass associated
with the front. Best chance for thunderstorms will be along and
south of the Ohio River, while northern locations may not see any
For Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop to
the west in response to a mid level short wave entering the
Mississippi River valley. This will result in increasing
thunderstorm chances by Thursday afternoon, especially in
southeast counties where forcing will coincide with peak
instability. A few strong thunderstorms may occur in an
environment featuring moderate instability and mid level flow.
Temperatures rising to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday may slip a
few degrees Thursday under clouds, precip and modest cold
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as we head into the weekend and then into early next week, mid
level trough and moisture will gradually depart to our east.
Allowing surface high pressure to build into from the north Sunday
into Monday, bringing a return to dry weather.
Temperatures will show a downward trend into the weekend due to more
clouds and the threat for rain. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90
Wednesday will lower into the lower/mid 80s by the weekend.
Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 60s.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
thunderstorms and rain have developed over cvg/luk near a stalled frontal boundary.
Expect those 2 locations to be affected by the thunderstorms and rain for the first
couple of hours of the period with MVFR/IFR vsbys. After that
thunderstorms and rain will be scattered across srn Ohio and nrn KY, so transitioned to
a thunderstorms in the vicinity.
Up at Kiln, a MVFR cigs on the nrn edge of the convection has
worked in. As the convection works NE, it could brush iln. Only
went with thunderstorms in the vicinity for a few hours to cover the threat. Day could get
nicked by a VFR shower, but expect cmh/lck to remain dry.
Model trend is for the convection to weaken and dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating, so have the tafs dry overnight. With
lingering dewpoints in the 70s at the srn tafs, kept the mention
of some fog overnight.
Scattered convection should pop up again tomorrow, so have thunderstorms in the vicinity
in the cvg 30 hour taf.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon through