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fxus61 Kiln 231907 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
307 PM EDT sun Apr 23 2017

high pressure will build into the region over the next couple
of days, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend through
mid week. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday
night into Thursday bringing the next chance for precipitation.


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
precipitation is having a tough time making much of a
northward push into our fa this afternoon with perhaps just a
few sprinkles sneaking into far southern Lewis County. The
bigger impact has been the clouds as a fairly thick cirrus
shield has overspread most of our area with some decent
enhancement now showing up on the infrared satellite images. This has
resulted in mostly cloudy skies and has helped keep the
temperatures down several degrees across our southern areas.
These clouds will likely persist into the overnight hours as the
models continue to indicate some high level moisture spinning
northward around the upper level low dropping down into the
southeastern United States. This may have a minor
moderating influence on temps overnight and will range lows
from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. The
models continue to have some light pcpn pushing up into our far
southeast through the overnight hours. This may be overdone
given the trends so will just carry a slight chance for showers
across our extreme southeast.


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
the upper level low will continue to shift off to the southeast
on Monday to just off the southeast coast through Monday night.
It looks like a weak inverted trough may hang back across the
Tennessee Valley possibly extending up toward the mid Ohio
Valley. This will allow for the low level flow to become more
east southeasterly through the day on Monday, leading to some
850 mb moisture advection up into at least our southern areas.
This will likely lead to an increase in some lower level clouds
as we progress through the day. Highs on Monday will be somewhat
dependent on the amount of cloudiness, but generally expect
highs in the upper 60s to around 70.


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
for Tuesday and Wednesday, the area will be under a dry
southerly flow between slow moving areas of low pressure located
to the east and west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday night and Thursday when a cold front is forecast to
swing through from the west. Western locations should see more a
favorable environment for precip, with eastern sites having
lower pops as the front moves into less conducive conditions

The front may then stall south of the Ohio River Friday, before
lifting back toward the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will persist in the moisture, instability,
and convergence associated with the front.

Warm temperatures will be the rule in a regime featuring above
normal geopotential heights, though readings will vary somewhat with
respect to frontal position. Highs in the mid 70s Tuesday will
increase to the low 80s Wednesday under warm advection ahead of the
cold front. A retreat back to the low 70s Thursday due to frontal
passage will be followed by a rebound back to around 80 by next


Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
a fairly thick cirrus shield continues to spread northward
across the area early this afternoon. This will likely remain
in place across the region into tonight as the upper level low
shifts slowly southeast across the Tennessee Valley. Low level
moisture will begin to increase from the south through the day
on Monday, leading to an increase in some lower VFR clouds
through the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through the
taf period.

Outlook...MVFR cigs will be possible on Thursday along with a
chance of thunderstorms.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...



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