Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 201429
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
929 am EST Sat Jan 20 2018
developing southerly flow will lead to a warming trend through
the weekend, along with a chance of rain. A better chance of
rain showers will overspread the region through the day on
Monday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Near term /through tonight/...
westerly mid level flow with surface ridge axis east of iln/S
forecast area. A southerly low level flow will advect warmer air and low
level moisture into the region today. Moisture is rather shallow
and forcing is weak with only a few sprinkles possible late in
Temperatures will continue their warming trend. Highs will
range from near 40 northwest to near 50 southeast.
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
coverage of the showers will increase during the evening hours,
and should continue to be scattered throughout the night, as
isentropic lift continues. On Sunday, a sfc low moves into the
Central Plains. In response, a warm front develops in the lower
Great Lakes. Showers should focus closer to this front, so
continued with the trend of higher pops in the north Sunday into
Sunday night. With the region in the warm sector, highs should
range from the mid 40s in the north to the lower to mid 50s in
By Monday, a deep closed low pushes out The Rockies and into the
plains. Ahead of the upper low, a deepening surface low will
eject northeast into the upper MS valley. Line of showers will
work through the fa on Monday ahead of the front. The region
should experience categorical pops. Highs Monday will range from
west to east from 50 60 degrees.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
mid/upper level low and deepening surface low to eject
northeast from the plains into the Great Lakes Monday night
into Tuesday. With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes,
a chance of precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain
changing to snow. The best chance will occur across the north
counties, closer to the upper lows. Temperatures turn closer to
normal with highs Tuesday from the mid 30s northwest to the
lower 40s southeast.
In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build across the
region in the Wed/Thu time frame. This feature will provide dry
weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue
close to normal with wednesdays highs from the mid 30s north to the
lower 40s south.
Temperatures will moderate slightly Thursday with highs from the
upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.
A southerly flow will develop on the backside of retreating high
pressure for the end of the week. Moisture will increase with a
chance of rain developing later Friday. Temperatures to warm up
above normal with highs from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s
Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will be found as cirrus spills in from the
northwest and thickens this morning. South-southwest surface winds are
expected to advect in a 2000-2500' stratus deck from SW-NE
today, beginning late morning in the southwest, afternoon in
the northeast. Models are showing light quantitative precipitation forecast over the region
this evening, but this appears to be primarily from the high
moisture content in the lowest few thousand feet and general
convergence/upglide. With a lack of a distinct forcing
mechanism, have not included any sprinkles in the forecast,
though any that occur will likely be VFR vsbys underneath the
MVFR cloud deck. One exception here is later in the evening and
overnight at kday where the axis of best lower level convergence
sets up and some sprinkles or light rain has a higher potential
of occurrence. Used vicinity showers to account for this here
and still feel that any rain will remain VFR through the
Outlook...MVFR cigs expected through Sunday night. MVFR cigs
and vsbys in rain possible Monday, along with 25kt gusts.