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fxus61 Kiln 290152 
afdiln

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
952 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Synopsis...
showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday as
a warm front lifts north across the Ohio Valley. A much warmer
airmass will be in place across the area through the weekend. A
cold front will bring another chance of precipitation Sunday
night into Monday and usher in a cooler airmass for next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms will move through
overnight. Expanded the Flash Flood Watch a tier of counties
further north. Several inches of rainfall will be possible
across a large area. Severe threat will continue as well this
evening with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes
possible.

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Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
the boundary will continue to lift northward through the day on
Saturday. As we get into the warm sector, southern portions of
our fa will push well into the 80s with good instability
developing as we head through the day. Pcpn chances will again
be dependent on the placement and timing of the front, but given
the instability, will allow for chance pops to slowly lift
north across the area with the boundary through the day. As the
front pushes off to our north, we should see a decreasing chance
of pcpn across the north heading into Saturday night.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
area will be in the warm sector on Sunday which will allow
temperatures to be very warm with forecast highs just a few degrees
below records. Cannot rule out a few storms drifting into western
counties, although most activity will be west of the forecast area.

Occluded front will sweep through the region Sunday night into
Monday. Expect a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track
across the area with this feature. Instability looks weak and
precipitation will be progressive, so threats seems to be quite
limited.

Closed low will lift from the Mississippi Valley into the western
Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday before opening up and tracking east.
Associated surface low will pass north of the area. But there will
be a strong gradient south of the low. So expect gusty winds Monday
into Tuesday. A few showers could pass across the area Monday.

High pressure will briefly build in later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. But the precipitation will already start to spread into
southwest counties on Wednesday as a warm front develops south of
the area. The front will become more pronounced until low pressure
moves through the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Thursday night. So
there will be a chance of showers during this time period. The
chance of rain will then diminish on Friday.

After the occluded front moves through, temperatures will be below
normal.

&&

Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
showers and thunderstorms will move across the taf sites this
evening and overnight. Vsbys will be reduced with some of these
thunderstorms. In addition ceilings will gradually lower overnight
as well. A warm front will lift northwards on Saturday. Some
additional shower activity will be possible with isolated
thunderstorms.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of thunderstorms
are possible Saturday night, Sunday night and Monday. Wind
gusts to 35 kt possible Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ohz060>062-
070>072-077>081.
Kentucky...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for kyz089>099.
In...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for inz058-059-066-
073>075-080.

&&

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