Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 281850
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
250 PM EDT sun may 28 2017
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A drier
airmass will settle into the region heading into Monday before
some lower chances of precipitation return through mid week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
visible satellite imagery showing a fair amount of cloudiness
pushing up across Kentucky into southern Indiana and southwest
Ohio. This is helping to keep temps down somewhat with current
readings only in the low to mid 70s. As a result, we have been
slow to destabilize this afternoon with still some cin present
across our south and the better instabilities off to our north
across northern Indiana into Northern Ohio.
Short wave energy will move across the southern Great Lakes
through early evening. Ahead of this, thunderstorms have
developed across northern Indiana this afternoon and these
should continue to work their way eastward as we head through
early evening. The southern extent of these will be dependent
on how much more we are able to destabilize through late
afternoon. The hrrr is the most aggressive with this, bringing
a scattered to broken line of thunderstorms across our area the
23z-04z time frame. However, most of the other hi res models are
much less impressive with this. Will therefore limit likely
pops to just our northwest and then allow for chance pops to
work southeast across the remainder of the area through the
evening. The severe threat looks to be pretty marginal but
suppose if we were going to see any severe, the best chance
would be across our northwest where some better mid and deeper
layer shear is forecast to work in through the evening hours.
Drier air will then work in overnight, leading to decreasing
clouds from northwest to southeast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
the drier airmass will continue to settle into the region
through the morning hours on Monday. Some energy rotating around
an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will
push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday
night. This will help push an associated weakening surface
trough down into northern portions of our area. Forcing and
instability appears to be fairly weak so will just hang on to
some slight chance pops across the area for mainly Monday
night. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
a few showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday in the vicinity
of a weak cold front, affecting mainly eastern counties. A similar
scenario is indicated for Wednesday near the stalled boundary, with
thunderstorm chances enhanced by increased short wave energy
rounding the base of a broad upper trough. High pressure and dry
weather to start Thursday will decay rather quickly as another
frontal boundary forms across the Great Lakes, allowing for a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to return by Thursday night.
Thunderstorms will affect mainly northern locations to start, with
convection chances spreading south and persisting Friday through
Sunday as the front meanders over the region.
Temperatures are likely to be near normal through the period, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60.
Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
we are still seeing some lingering patches of MVFR cigs across
the area but these should continue to lift up into a lower VFR
cu field over the next hour or so. Instability will continue to
increase through this afternoon with the highest values across
our north. This should lead to scattered thunderstorms
developing through late afternoon, continuing into this
evening. The best chance for storms will be at kday, with
decreasing chances to the south and east. Will therefore allow
for a tempo -tsra at kday and then just cover the threat with
a thunderstorms in the vicinity elsewhere. Pcpn will taper off through late evening as we
lose the instability and a cold front moves through. A drier
airmass will move into the area behind the front with VFR
conditions expected through the remainder of the taf period.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.