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fxus61 Kiln 231141 
afdiln

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
641 am EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Synopsis...
a few showers may develop today ahead of a cold frontal boundary
entering Northwest Ohio. More showers will be possible tonight
when the boundary is forecast to lift back north as a warm
front. A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
late Friday, with severe weather possible. Colder air and brisk
winds will follow the front on Saturday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a cold front extends across Illinois from low pressure over
northern Michigan. Moisture is increasing in the southerly flow
ahead of the front, producing some low clouds and br. Models
show scattered showers developing as the front slowly approaches
Northwest Ohio, though that may be overdone with no radar echoes
evident yet. Kept slight chance pops for this event. Frontal
progress is likely to stall over Northern Ohio by late
afternoon as the front becomes nearly parallel to the 500 mb
flow.

Temperatures will continue to be anomalously warm, reaching the
mid and upper 60s, possibly attaining record highs at cmh and
day.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
front is forecast to lift north to Lake Erie tonight as a warm
front ahead of deepening low pressure moving to Illinois.
Showers will be possible in isentropic lift near the front,
mainly over northern locations.

For Friday, the low is expected to travel to Lake Michigan,
while a strong cold front swings into Indiana. Potent moisture
and temperature advection on a southerly low level jet will
cause convergence and instability to increase by afternoon,
resulting in a chance of thunderstorms well ahead of the cold
front. Thunderstorms will become likely in western counties by 6
PM Friday when the thunderstorms are forecast to congeal into a
line. Strong wind fields suggest better than average storm
organization and potency, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible with some of the storms.

Temperatures rising to the low and mid 70s should break daily
record highs, and monthly highs will also be in jeopardy (see
climate section below).

&&

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
a strong mid level jet of 100 plus kts to pivot northeast from the
Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday evening. Deepening surface
low to eject northeast through the Great Lakes Friday night with a
strong cold front sweeping east across iln/S forecast area between 06z and 09z.
Numerical models have generally trended further southeast with the
surface wave, closer to previous European model (ecmwf) solutions. With surface
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s model solutions are showing
MLCAPES values of 750 to 1000 j/kg Friday evening ahead of this
surface front. Forecast soundings show favorable shear for initially
supercells transitioning to linear storm Mode. The threat exists for
damaging winds, large hail and the possibility of tornadoes. The
latest Storm Prediction Center swody2 has expanded the enhanced risk for severe storms
Friday night to include most of iln/S forecast area. Will continue to highlight
this severe weather threat in the severe weather potential statement product.

In the wake of the front windy conditions are likely in the cold air advection
pattern later Friday night into Saturday. Momentum Transfer method
applied to forecast soundings across west central Ohio indicate wind
gusts up to 40 mph will be possible into Saturday afternoon.

A few showers will be possible Saturday across west central Ohio due
to the passage of the mid level trof but the best moisture and lift
looks to stay north of iln/S forecast area. Surface high pressure to build in
Sunday providing dry weather and more seasonable temperatures.

Model solutions then diverge on the timing and placement of systems
in quick zonal flow. GFS solution showing wave moving through on
Monday, while European model (ecmwf) is holds pcpn off until Monday night with a warm
front lifting north. Due to uncertainty will limit pops to a slight
chance late Sunday night into Monday. This pcpn may start as a
rain/snow mix, changing to rain Monday.

A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday into
Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a surface
wave of low pressure developing in the Central Plains.

With this low traveling through the Great Lakes a sfc cold front
sweeps east through the Ohio Valley Wednesday. In the warm sector
ahead of this front will allow for highs in the middle 50s to lower
60s for a chance for thunder.

Northwest flow develops with surface high pressure building in next
Thursday. This will provide dry weather and more seasonable
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
mid level shortwave tracks through the Great Lakes today with
surface frontal boundary laying out E-W across central Ohio by
evening. Scattered showers will be possible closer to the
vicinity of this front. A shower at kday/kcmh/klck is not out of
the question but due to limited coverage and better threat north
have omitted mention in taf forecast.

On the warm side of this front low level moisture increases on
a southerly flow this morning, producing MVFR conditions.

MVFR is expected to persist into the afternoon before ceilings
lift above 3000 ft from the south. A return to MVFR could occur
this evening. As the front lifts north toward sunrise Friday
ceilings will improve from south to north.

Outlook...thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night.
MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Saturday and Monday.

&&

Climate...
record high temperatures
date cvg cmh day
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961)

February record highs

Cvg 76 set 2/10/1932
cmh 75 set 2/26/2000
day 73 set 2/11/1999 and 2/25/2000

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...coniglio

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