Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
828 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
a cold front will continue to move southeast of the area tonight.
High pressure traveling across the Ohio Valley will bring dry
weather and warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday. A few showers
will be possible Sunday when a cold front is forecast to drop
south from the Great Lakes.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
a cold front trailing low pressure centered near buf is now southeast
of the iln area. Though measurable precip has ended, skies remain
cloudy in residual moisture trapped under an inversion around 2500
ft above ground level. After evaluating satellite and obs, expect clouds to
remain in place much longer than models indicate, with cloudy to
mostly cloudy skies lingering through tonight. Northwest winds
bringing cooler temperatures will result in near normal lows
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
tranquil weather is forecast through the period as surface high
pressure pushes across Ohio to become centered over South
Carolina, while a ridge builds aloft. Left over low clouds will
dissipate early Friday, leaving mostly sunny/mostly clear
conditions Friday afternoon through Saturday.
After near normal highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s are
attained Friday, warm advection and greater than average
insolation will boost temperatures on Saturday, resulting in much
above normal highs in the 70s.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
a cold front will work through the area on Sunday. The best chance
for precipitation will be across northern and central portions of
the forecast area. Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday
evening as the front nears the Ohio River.
Southerly flow will begin to develop on Monday and become more
prominent on Tuesday. Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day of
the long term with decent southerly flow and ample sunshine.
Temperatures will be well above normal with highs in the middle 70s
to around 80.
Models start to diverge for Wednesday into Thursday with timing and
strength of fronts. At this time there is a better signal for
Thursday therefore went dry on Wednesday and bring in a chance for
rain showers on Thursday. Even with the potential front expect
continued above normal temperatures through the long term.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
MVFR/ VFR deck remains across the area this evening with latest
high res guidance showing clouds scattering out in the next couple
of hours. Given low level cyclonic flow have continued current
forecast of holding on to clouds slightly longer than current
guidance. High pressure will move into the area Friday morning
allowing winds to go mostly light with low clouds transitioning to
mid level clouds. During the day Friday surface high pressure will
slide east allowing winds to veer and come out of the southeast.
VFR conditions are expected during the day Friday.
Outlook...MVFR cigs possible Sunday and Monday.