Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 181413
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
913 am EST Thu Jan 18 2018
high pressure centered south of the region will extend up the
western side of the Appalachians through the end of the week.
This will keep southwesterly flow across the area, resulting in
dry conditions and a gradual warming of temperatures.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a dry airmass in place across the region today will result in
mostly sunny conditions. Weak low level cold air advection across the area
this morning will transition to more neutral through this
afternoon as the low level flow begins to back. Expect highs
primarily in the upper 20s to possibly lower 30s across the
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
ridge of high pressure will extend from the Gulf Coast into the
upper Ohio Valley through the period. May see some cirrus
spilling into the area, but that should still allow for mainly
clear skies. Southwest winds will persist which will allow
gradual warm up to continue. However, still believe guidance is
slightly too aggressive with warmer temperatures.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
tranquil weather conditions will start out Friday night. Southerly
flow will allow for temperatures to climb into the 30s and 40s for
Saturday and 40s and 50s for Sunday. Some light rain will be
possible at times this weekend, however rain is expected to be light
and not widespread in coverage.
Better chances for precipitation move into the region for Monday and
into Monday evening as a frontal boundary approaches and moves
through the region. Winds will pick up with the frontal boundary
with some wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph. As colder air works in
cannot rule out some light snow after the passage of the front.
This system will move out of the region by Tuesday evening and there
is not be a clear signal for any additional precipitation occurring
in the long term.
Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR will prevail through the period with just some thin high
clouds passing across the region tonight. Southwest winds will
persist, increasing to 12 to 15 kt during the day, but otherwise
being around 10 kt.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into
Sunday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind
gusts to 25 kt possible Monday.