Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
150 PM EDT Friday Jul 29 2016
a weak frontal boundary will remain across the area through much
of the weekend. This will lead to a chance of mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms each day. High pressure and a drier
airmass will build into the Ohio Valley Monday and Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
increased temperatures generally northwest of Interstate 71 where
there has been more sun today. A few degrees away from convective
temperature in northwest portions of the forecast area so expect
that area to cu rather soon. Although some shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity will continue to be possible across southern
and eastern portions of the forecast area, better support and
better conditions exist for thunderstorm activity across areas
that have received more heating. This will gradually translate
east later today into this evening. Cannot rule out some heavy
rain and isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon as
thunderstorms develop. Will continue to mention these threats in
the severe weather potential statement.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
while isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
should begin to taper off through the evening hours as we lose the
diurnal enhancement, a few showers may linger into the overnight
hours as some short wave energy will continue to push east across
the region. We will then destabilize again through the day on
Saturday and with the boundary still lingering across the area,
expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop once again
through the afternoon hours. Diurnally driven activity will then
taper off Saturday evening with lower end pops then possible on
into Sunday as we begin to dry out and the better forcing shifts
off to our east. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low
to possibly mid 80s.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
high pressure and dry conditions are expected for Monday into
Tuesday across the region.
Some model solutions are showing a complex of storms working down
into portions of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The
best chance of precipitation with this appears to be across western
portions of the area. There have been some run to run
inconsistencies and the GFS is maintaining a dry forecast during
this time, therefore limited any precipitation chances to the chance
category at this time. The 12z European model (ecmwf) has come in drier for
Wednesday night into Thursday, which better corresponds with the
GFS. Due to this went with a dry forecast to only a slight chance
of storms during this time.
Better chances of precipitation look to hold off until after the end
of the long term period on Friday as a frontal boundary moves
through the region.
High temperatures will generally be in the 80s with low temperatures
in the 60s to around 70.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and into the early evening hours. Better coverage early this
afternoon will be across the northern taf sites where there has
been less cloud cover earlier in the day and more heating. As the
afternoon progresses expect additional coverage across the
southern taf sites. With moist airmass in place fog and
potentially some stratus will be possible again overnight tonight.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon with
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.