Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 290012
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
812 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017
multiple disturbances will allow for thunderstorm chances
through the week. The summertime pattern will allow for warmer
temperatures in the 80s each day.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
dry conditions are expected through the overnight hours. Some
mid and high clouds will move across the region. In addition a
few cu will be possible this afternoon. Went close to guidance
for low temperatures overnight.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
dry conditions will start out the short term, however as
moisture increases a few pop up showers or storms will be
possible across southeastern portions of the region southeast of
Interstate 71. In addition, a frontal boundary will approach
from the northwest bringing thunderstorm chances to primarily
extreme northwestern portions of the forecast area.
The severe threat appears minimal across the region, however
cannot rule out an isolated damaging wind gust across far
northwestern portions of the forecast area closer to the front
and where there is better instability. Most of this activity
looks as though it would hold off until more of the evening
hours and then decrease by Friday morning.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
a cold front will sag down toward the area through the day on
Friday. As we destabilize through the afternoon, this will lead to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance across
northwest portions of our area. With the slow movement of the front,
will nudge up highs a tad for Friday, generally into the middle 80s.
The front will continue to push southeast Friday night into Saturday
as it weakens and stalls out across our area. This will result in
some better chances for showers and thunderstorms later Friday night
and through the day on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be somewhat
dependent on the placement of the front and the amount of pcpn but
should mainly be in the lower 80s.
The boundary will continue to wash out through the day on Sunday but
it may still lead to an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
We should then dry out Sunday night into Monday. However, several
mid level short waves will push east across the area through mid
week. This will lead to additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms at times through the remainder of the long term
period. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 80s.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
surface high pressure that was in control this afternoon will
continue to slowly pull east this evening. Overnight an upper
level disturbance will skirt north of the area with most of the
area staying dry.
Thursday morning the low level pressure gradient begins to
strengthen with 40kts possible at 2kft. The threat appears to be
mainly contained in the 6z and 12z time frame and more
contained towards kday. Thursday afternoon VFR conditions will
continue with the taf sites being in between high pressure off
to the east and low pressure to the northwest. This gradient
will allow for wind gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range (supported by
GFS/ NAM momentum transfer).
Outlook...thunderstorms possible at times from Thursday night