Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 241053
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
553 am EST Fri Nov 24 2017
a southerly flow will develop on the back side of retreating high
pressure allowing for dry conditions and warmer temperatures today.
A weak cold front will move through the Ohio Valley tonight and
early Saturday offering only a slight chance of a shower. High
pressure will build in behind the front, persisting into the middle
of the work week, offering continued dry weather.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
northwest mid level flow backs westerly with surface high
pressure building off the East Coast. Southerly low level flow
increases between this retreating surface high and an
approaching cold front to our west. Southerly surface winds will
increase to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph.
Expect a good deal of sunshine today with an increase in high
level clouds late. Temperatures will warm to readings a little
above normal today. Expect highs from the lower 50s north to the
middle 50s south.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
mid level S/W to track through the Great Lakes with a surface
cold front passing through iln/S forecast area late tonight/early Saturday.
Expect to see an increase in clouds late tonight with the
approach of this system. Moisture is limited forcing is weak.
Therefore, will limit any mention of showers to slight chance
across the central and north, late tonight into early Saturday.
Temperatures will be milder tonight with lows from the upper
30s north to the lower 40s south.
Mid level trof will settle into the Great Lakes with a good deal
of clouds mainly across the north Saturday. Surface high
pressure nosing into the southwest will keep skies partly clouds
there. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs from the
upper 40s north to the lower 50s south.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
at the beginning of the period, the area will be under a northwest
flow aloft on the west flank of a large upper trough. Surface high
pressure developing under the confluent upper flow will cover most
of the conus, providing dry weather conditions. As the upper flow
transitions to zonal by the middle of next week in response to a
closed low forming to the west, dry weather is likely to persist
through Wednesday under the massive and slow moving surface high now
centered to the east.
For Thursday, the upper low is forecast to shift to the Great Lakes,
while a surface low develops. Increasing moisture and forcing on a
southwest flow aloft will produce a chance of showers.
Temperatures will start near normal, with highs in the 40s on
Sunday. Under weak seasonal insolation and warm advection, expect
above normal readings for the rest of the period, with highs mainly
in the 50s.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
surface high pressure will slide off to the east today with
an increasing southerly flow developing in its back side. Clear
skies are expected for this morning with an increase in high
level clouds this afternoon. Some brief MVFR fog will be
observed at the kluk valley location early.
As a weak front approaches late tonight expect mid level cigs to
develop. A few sprinkles or light rain showers are not out of
the question but the probability and coverage are too low to
place in the taf forecast at this time.
Light winds this morning will pick up during the day and into
tonight in advance of a cold front. Expect southerly winds of
10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible this afternoon.
Low level wind shear is forecast for a period tonight with a low
level jet developing over the area mainly between 02z and 08z.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.