Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 241052
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
652 am EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
high pressure building into the center of the country will
bring mainly dry conditions this weekend and below normal
temperatures into early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the cold front has pushed through the region and has taken the
pcpn with it. High pressure will build down across the center of
the nation today. However zonal flow at 500 mb will allow a vort Max
to swing thru the srn Great Lakes. This will kick off cloud
developed today, along with a few showers. The majority of the
models keep these showers north of the fa, so kept the region
dry, but wouldn't be surprised if a sprinkle or two develops,
especially in the extreme north.
High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in the northwest
counties to the lower 80s in the se.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
clouds are forecast to scattered out tonight as the high build
in from the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures will cool back into
the mid 50s.
A stronger 500 mb S/W swings across the Great Lakes on Sunday. This
S/W is a little farther north the one that affects the region
today. Once again kept pcpn chances across nrn Ohio, just to the
north of the region. Highs will range from the lower 70s across
the north to the upper 70s near the Ohio River.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
mean trof becomes more amplified over the area, so a contd
threat of showers or thunderstorms will be continued Monday.
Cool temperatures to continue with mondays highs expected to be
in the lower 70s.
Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow
increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s.
The European model (ecmwf) and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through
the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an
increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance.
Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes
which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the
northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday
with highs generally in the mid 70s.
Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing
on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming
trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday
in the lower 80s.
Westerly flow aloft with surface wave tracking through the northern
Great Lakes. This will allow an associated surface front to drop
south into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Have limited
pops to chance category with the highest pops northwest Thursday. On
the warm side of this system, expect temperatures to reach highs in
the lower and middle 80s Thursday.
Another progressive wave and associated frontal boundary expected to
approach from the west increasing thunderstorm chances Friday into
Friday night. Model solution strength and timing differences exist
regarding this system. Due to this spread, uncertainty
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
scattered cirrus this morning in Ohio Valley is coming
downstream from convective complexes in Texas. Drier air at almost
all levels is coming in with the passage of a cold front earlier
Cumulus development today may end up as a broken VFR deck,
primarily along the I-70 corridor this afternoon. With continued
cold advection until the thermal trough crosses overnight, cu
may be present for a while.
Any lingering fog will clear relatively quickly as west-
northwest winds increase to around 8kt after daybreak and then
12kt with gusts to 20kt during the afternoon.
Outlook...intermittent MVFR ceilings possible through Tuesday.