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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
453 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move through the area today. The
front will stall out across Kentucky allowing for continued
thunderstorm chances across this area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Cold front will continue to work through the area this evening.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed in advance of
this feature. Cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms
through early this evening with the main threat being damaging
winds.  Brief heavy downpours will also be possible.

Also in advance of the frontal boundary hot and humid conditions
will be present. Although there is some thunderstorm activity heat
index values will continue to be near 100 in some areas across
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Due to this
maintained the heat advisory and excessive heat warning for now.

Temperatures will be coolest across northern portions of the
region tonight where there will be less cloud cover and more
cooler air working into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will stall out across the area for Tuesday. This
will allow for continued thunderstorm chances across mainly
northern Kentucky. This will be largely diurnally driven although
cannot rule out some more isolated activity Tuesday morning and
Tuesday night. Dewpoints will be lower on Tuesday in addition to
lower temperatures. Due to this heat index values will be lower as
well with values in the middle to upper 80s across the north to
the lower 90s across the south closer to the boundary.

Weak upper level disturbance is expected to move through late in
the overnight hours Tuesday night. In addition a weak boundary
will be across the area. Due to this combination expect isolated
to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Limited chance
preciptiation chances to near the Interstate 70 corridor closer to
the boundary and upper level support. Due to some uncertainty on
the location of this boundary have a slight chance in across
remainder of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather will work back into the region toward the end of
the work week. The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region will initially
be located underneath a belt of westerly flow aloft. Thereafter, mid
level energy will dig into the region from the northwest, allowing
deeper moisture to return north ahead of it, along with a greater
risk for showers and thunderstorms.

For Wednesday into Thursday, with a weak left over boundary near the
Ohio River, chance of showers and thunderstorms will be more
relegated in this area. By Friday, with a larger scale trough and
deeper moisture advecting northward, showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage.

As we head into the weekend and then into early next week, mid level
trough and moisture will gradually depart to our east. allowing
surface high pressure to build into from the north Sunday into
Monday, bringing a return to dry weather.

Temperatures will show a downward trend into the weekend due to more
clouds and the threat for rain. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90
Wednesday will lower into the lower/mid 80s by the weekend.
Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and storms have fired along and downstream of a slowly-
moving boundary parallel to and just east of the I-71 corridor in
Ohio. This boundary will slowly drift S/E thru the afternoon,
allowing the northern terminals of KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK to remain
dry thru 00z Tuesday.

A cold front stretching from MI southwestward through southern IL
will move S/E thru the evening hours, allowing for winds to turn
more northwesterly for the overnight period. Winds will remain
very light overnight, allowing for the possibility of BR/MVFR
VSBYs to develop once again for southern sites of KCVG, KLUK, and
KILN, especially as front may be a bit slower to usher in drier
air for these sites.

VFR conditions are expected after 12z Tuesday as the front stalls
south of the terminals. There exists a little uncertainty as to
how far south the front will progress before stalling. This will
dictate where SHRA/TS development will be possible on Tuesday
afternoon, but still expect coverage to be concentrated south of
southern terminals of KCVG and KLUK.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ055-056-
     063>065-070>074-078>082-088.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...KC

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