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FXUS61 KILN 160918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
418 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

An upper ridge and surface high pressure over the southeastern 
states will bring dry conditions and above normal temperatures
to the region today.

A storm system will lift northeast on Sunday, bringing a chance
of rain to the region.


Area of cold advection stratocu that has been affecting the fa,
is trying to shift to the east, however, H5 nw flow is bringing
altocu down over top of it. Models are indicating that by 12Z 
this morning, the mid-level moisture will be moving east of the 
fa. This is in response to a surface high working through the 
southeastern states. At the same time, H5 ridging will be moving
up the Ohio Valley. Sunshine will combine with warm advection 
to push temperatures into the 40s. Expect highs around 40 in 
the north and the upper 40s in nrn KY. H8 jet will bring wind 
gusts of 15-25 MPH.


Mid level ridge will keep the region dry tonight, with temperatures
dropping back into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

On Sunday, a H5 s/w will eject northeast out of the southern
plains towards the region. Low level moisture will increase
across the region ahead of the system. With the s/w weakening as
it comes north, pcpn will not be heavy, but coverage should be
enuf for likely PoPs across a majority of the region. The rain
will keep temperatures down a little on Sunday, with highs only
ranging from 40 to 45 degrees.

Precipitation coverage will be decreasing by late Monday as the
s/w passes east. Lingering low level moisture and weak lift in
zonal flow will keep a slight chance of showers over the region
Sunday night and Monday. Expect highs on Monday from the mid  
40s over the extreme north to the lower 50s in the south.


Shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes and weak front will 
provide a slight chance of a shower Tuesday. Above normal 
temperatures to continue Tuesday with highs ranging from the the
upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. 

Model solutions diverge at mid week but will follow continuity and 
keep forecast dry Wednesday with surface high pressure building into 
the region. Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs 
from the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s south. 

Models differ on handling next surface low which tracks through the 
area at the end of the week in split flow regime. Will hold off pcpn 
until late Thursday afternoon and then increase pops Thursday night 
with approach of surface front. On the warm side of this system 
expect Thursdays highs from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s 

Pcpn to diminish from nw to se late Friday into Friday night in the 
wake of the front. Pcpn may mix with or change to snow prior to 
ending. Highs to range from lower 40s nw to the lower 50s se


VFR conditions will be present through the forecast period.
Stratus deck around 6kft will erode from the west overnight, as
a higher 10kft deck streams in from the northwest. This 10kft
deck will break up this morning as it moves ene and out of the
picture by noon. Winds will see some gusts to 20-22kt from late
morning to early afternoon as the surface gradient tightens and
then slack after about 20-21z. 

Generally clear skies will be found overnight but the extended
TAF at CVG will see cirrus clouds spill in from the southwest
before daybreak Sunday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Sunday night through Monday night.





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