Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 261444
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1044 am EDT Wed Jul 26 2017
high pressure will continue to extend across the area into
tonight. Low pressure and a cold front will approach the region
on Thursday and move through Thursday night into Friday
morning. High pressure will gradually build in for the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
made only very minor changes to forecast high temperatures in
the south generally along and south of the river today, where
high clouds will take longer to thicken in this area and low
level southerly flow should allow temperatures to creep into the
upper 80s in especially areas of tri state as opposed to further
east toward Portsmouth/Vanceburg which where southwest flow
won't be as efficient.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
ridge will finally move off to the east tonight. Low pressure
and a cold front will approach from the west northwest on
Thursday as a short wave dives out of the plains and into the
Ohio Valley. Showers and some thunderstorms may start to push
into the region towards daybreak. Expect activity to increase
especially in the afternoon with just about the entire area
getting some precipitation. There is some question about how
much instability will be available within the model suite, but
there will be plenty of moisture. So locally heavy rainfall will
be a concern. If enough instability is realized, then there may
also be a damaging wind threat, primarily in the southern or
Lows may be able to drop a bit in eastern counties in the
evening but western areas will stay warm. Expected cloud cover
and precipitation should limit highs on Thursday and have leaned
towards cooler guidance.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
an area of low pressure will be moving through the region at the
start of the long term period. Some heavy rain will be possible
with this feature at the start of the long term. This feature will
move to the east on Friday, however an upper level disturbance will
bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the region on
Precipitation will taper off Friday night. High pressure and dry
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the long term with
cu developing each day.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal from Friday through
Sunday and then getting back closer to seasonal normals for Monday
Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR will prevail through most if not all of the forecast period.
Only expect some thin cirrus during the day and into the
evening. Scattered to broken cumulus will spread in along with
thickening high clouds late in the taf period. Some showers and
possibly thunderstorms may also start to impact areas from kday
to kcvg/kluk before 12z.
Outlook...thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday
night. MVFR ceilings will be possible Thursday night into