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fxus62 kilm 201605 
afdilm

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1107 am EST Sat Jan 20 2018

Synopsis...
mild temperatures for January, will prevail through early next
week. A cold front will bring rain showers Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning. A warm afternoon Tuesday, will precede
a cooling trend Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds
in. The high will slip offshore Friday, setting the stage for a
warming trend next weekend,

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 930 am Saturday...no changes to the forecast.

As of 3 am Saturday...very quiet weather expected through the
near term period. A mid level low will meander though the
southeast states with little to no impact on the surface
conditions. Some confluence in the mid levels well to the north
will push high pressure a little further south east of the
Appalachians today. In response to this, temperature guidance is
going a little cooler for today's highs. Given the fact guidance
was too cool Friday, feel high temperatures will be similar to
friday's, in the upper 50s to around 60. Lows Sunday morning
will be in the lower to middle 30s due to overall airmass
modification.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
as of 3 am Saturday...main caption this period, 'mild with rain
chances late monday'. Surface high pressure over the Savannah
River valley daybreak Sunday, will migrate well offshore of the
Carolinas by Sunday night. As a result, after an afternoon in
the 60s Sunday, lows overnight into Monday will fall only into
the 40s, as wind flow becomes southerly. In addition to pre-
frontal showers, coastal fog, patchy in nature, may form late
Monday, as rising dewpoints in the warm air advection, tracks
over chilly inshore waters. Partial sunshine ahead of the front
Monday will bring maximums in the middle to upper 60s by the
early afternoon. Temperatures will remain cooler near the sea.
There is no threat of wintry conditions with this frontal
system, as very mild, pre-frontal minimums are anticipated
early Tuesday, in the 50s, in a wettish start to the morning.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...breezy conditions and warm Tue. Models
indicate high pressure will then follow with cooling trends
through mid week in wake of a cold front. High pressure
overhead Friday will move offshore this by the weekend.

&&

Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 18z...VFR conditions expected through the duration of the
valid taf period. High pressure centered over Georgia will give US
predominately westerly flow today with light winds overnight. Little
to no fog expected. Sunday, moisture will begin to return, but still
expect predominately scattered skies with light winds.

Extended outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR/rain showers late Mon/early Tue.

&&

Marine...
near term /through tonight/...
as of 930 am Saturday...no changes to the forecast.

As of 3 am Saturday...high pressure sinking to the south and a
westerly flow from the north will produce a west to southwest
flow across all waters through the period. Wind speeds will be
in a 10-15 knot range. No surprise significant seas without any
distant swell component will be 1-3 feet.

Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
as of 3 am Saturday...a welcoming marine period on tap, as
return flow, weak initially, develops this period. High
pressure over the Savannah River valley daybreak Sunday, will
move well offshore of the Carolinas by Sunday evening. This
results in S-southeast wind 12 knots or less Sunday and Monday, but
increasing Monday night as a cold front approaches the coast.
Inshore fog may reduce visibility at times by Monday night.
Seas no problem Sunday and Monday, but Monday night 5-6 foot
southerly wind-seas will build offshore as S winds amplify to
20 knots and gusty.



Long term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...
as of 315 PM Friday...the highlight for this period will be a
cold front passage slated for Tue morning. Weak onshore flow will increase and
become SW Tue ahead of the cold front. After frontal passage Tue, winds
will veer to the west and northwest and then slowly abate by Tue night and
continuing into Wed as the center of high pressure approaches
from the Gulf Coast states. Scec conditions likely Tue with Small Craft Advisory
at this point a possibility. Significant seas 3 to 5 ft with a
few 6 footers possible Tue. As winds become offshore, west to NW,
on Tue, seas will actually subside due to a shortened fetch.
Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate Tue. By
Wed, seas will run 1 to 3 ft thruout with a small east-southeast swell
dominating.

&&

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
NC...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$

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