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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
840 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

the oppressive heat and humidity will slowly abate early in the
upcoming week. A cool front to our north will drop slowly across
the Carolinas by Wednesday and this will bring a high chance for
thunderstorms early in the new week. Temperatures will finally
return to more normal mid-Summer levels after Sunday.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 830 PM Saturday...high tide has passed and the coastal
Flood Advisory for portions of the lower Cape Fear River has been

A north to south band of showers and thunderstorms continues to
move across portions of the forecast area at mid-eve. The leading
edge will be near Elizabethtown, Galivants Ferry and Andrews
between 9 and 10 PM. The back edge has cleared the Florence area
and will clear Marion and Lumberton between 9 and 10 PM. Thereafter,
the convection is expected to slowly wane as it slows with its
approach to the coast. Pops have been adjusted accordingly. The
prospects for even a strong thunderstorm are remote for the
remainder of the night.

Low-level jetting should make for an uncomfortable night and temps
should struggle to drop below 80 across portions of the area with
upper 70s most common. Humidity levels will be high.


Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
as of 300 PM Saturday...similar pattern through Sunday with
Atlantic ridge in place to the southeast and Piedmont trough to
the west. A deep SW flow of moist air will continue to feed into
the Carolinas. Looks like convection will once again be focused
along sea breeze in the afternoon and along trough inland on
Sunday with mainly scattered coverage.

On Monday, the mid to upper trough to the northwest will push a cold
front/trough south and east into the Carolinas. Local area will
lose cap as ridge slips farther east and minor shortwaves ride
across the base of the mid to upper trough. The increased instability
along with upper level support will produce more widespread
convection Mon aftn. The strong westerly push will steer the
storms into the area but also expect a little more organized
convection for Monday.

The 500 mb heights and 850 temps look like they will decrease
slightly sun and Mon and the development of clouds and convection
should all combine to limit temps increasing greater than 95 on
Sunday and much past 90 most places on Monday. Therefore do not
expect heat advisory thresholds to be met.


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 200 PM Saturday...pattern changes occur Tuesday as a trough
digs along the East Coast driving a cold front into the Carolinas.
This front will be accompanied by good chances for showers and
tstms Tue/Wed as it crawls southward before dissipating on
Thursday. This dissipating is cause by the parent trough pushing
off to the east, allowing for mid-level ridge to re-Blossom into
the mid-Atlantic. The ecm/CMC stall this front longer with better
convective chances as the trough is slower to eject to the east,
but the GFS has ensemble support and its solution is more
represented by wpc and the inherited grids, so will continue to
hedge towards a warmer/drier solution late in the week and into
the weekend. Convective chances will drop back to seasonable or
slightly below, with temps right around climo Fri/Sat, after a
period of around or slightly below normal temps with higher pop
the first half of the extended.


Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 00z...scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
move across the inland areas this evening. Confidence is low
regarding whether or not activity will make it to the coast. Brief
periods of marginal MVFR are possible. Otherwise expect quiet
conditions overnight with the potential for fog development low as
boundary layer winds remain elevated. Anticipate VFR with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms again on Sunday, with
south-southwest winds around 10 to 15 kts. Brief periods of MVFR
are possible in any stronger storms/heavy downpours.

Extended outlook...isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions.
Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low
ceilings. Otherwise, expect VFR.


near term /through tonight/...
as of 830 PM Saturday...low-level jetting should help to keep
wind speeds elevated for at least part of the late night. Expect
SW winds to be sustained at up to 15 to 20 kt. Seas will be 2 to 4

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
as of 300 PM Saturday...similar pattern will continue with
Bermuda high and Piedmont trough dominating the weather and
maintaining a SW flow over the waters. By Monday a cold front will
drop into the Carolinas but will make slow progress toward the
local waters but should see a veering of wind, becoming more
westerly by Monday night into early tues. A tightened gradient Mon
night will produce an increase in SW winds up to 15 to 20 kts and
push seas up to 4 to 5 ft in outer waters. Otherwise seas will
remain in the 2 to 4 ft range through the period. You can also
expect a better chc of thunderstorms over the waters, especially

Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
as of 200 PM Saturday...a cold front will cross the waters during
Tuesday turning winds slowly from SW at 10-15 kts, to northwest at 5-10
kts Tuesday night. This front will dissipate on Wednesday leaving
a diffuse pressure gradient as high pressure re-expands slowly
from the Atlantic. This will bring mostly east to southeast winds
Wed/Thu, at speeds around 10 kts. Seas will be highest on Tuesday,
3-4 ft, as the SW winds and residual southeast swell drive an amplified
spectrum. Behind the cold front, as the winds ease and become
variable, the wind wave will shift to the east/NE on top of the
residual southeast swell, but seas fall to around 2 ft the latter half of
the period.


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...



Near term...rjd
short term...rgz
long term...jdw

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