Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kilm 191504
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1004 am EST sun Feb 19 2017
weak high pressure will slowly build across the area through
Monday, shifting offshore mid week. Temperatures will remain
unseasonably warm through much of the week. A risk for showers
will increase late Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1000 am Sunday...weak high pressure across the Tennessee
and Ohio valleys will slowly build across the eastern Carolinas
today. High pressure centered across eastern Canada will begin
to ridge south across the Carolinas later tonight.
Skies were clear late this morning and will remain clear across
the area through tonight. The exception is some residual mid
clouds across the Cape Fear area which will move offshore
through early afternoon. There is the potential for patchy fog
toward Mon morning.
Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s with mid and upper
60s at the beaches. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
as of 300 am Sunday...dry and unseasonably mild weather will
continue through the short term as an elongated ridge centered
well to the north in Canada slowly transits the region. Dry low
and mid levels and no triggers means no precip is likely through
much of the period. There is the off chance of a sprinkle
Tuesday night as a broad upper trough approaches the eastern
Seaboard, but lack of low level moisture makes chances of
measurable precip seem remote. High cloud cover will increase,
however, and this will help keep daytime temperatures on Tuesday
a few degrees cooler than Monday.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 300 am Sunday...high pressure shifts off shore over the
western Atlantic becoming dominant feature Wednesday through
Friday. Initially shortwave will be exiting the southeast coast
Wed morning. May see some lingering clouds early Wed but
overall, a warm return flow in more of a Spring like pattern
will maintain warm weather with temps well above normal. Will
see some clouds in the mix Wed and thurs with a greater amount
by Friday as low level flow increases out of the southwest as
cold front begins to approach from the west. Pcp water values
below an inch Wed and thurs will reach above 1.5 inches on Fri.
Increased potential for convection will come late Fri into
Saturday as cold front moves through the Carolinas. The GFS
shows faster arrival with best chc of convection overnight Fri
into early Sat while the European model (ecmwf) shows a much drier frontal
passage with frontal passage Sat night. Either way, expect increased
clouds and shwr activity Fri night into Saturday. Relatively
cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind this front
for the latter half of the weekend. Temps well into the 70s Wed
through Sat will only reach into the 60s on Sunday. Overnight
lows between 55 and 60 most nights will drop down to 45 to 50
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 11z...scattered mid-level clouds will cross the area
early this morning associated with a 500 mb trough that will
move offshore by 14z. In the wake of this trough, a deep layer
of northwest flow will usher in very dry air through tonight. An
overall weak surface pressure field should keep winds generally
less than 10 knots today, and allow for decoupling after sunset.
Extended outlook...VFR conditions are expected. Chance of
showers Wednesday and Thursday.
near term /through tonight/...
as of 1000 am Sunday...high pressure will slowly build across
the waters from the northwest and west this afternoon. High pressure will
begin to ridge south across the waters later tonight, veering
winds to the north-northwest and north late. Wind speeds will be up to 10 to 15
kt this period. Seas will be 1 to 2 ft.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
as of 300 am Sunday....weak high pressure transiting the waters
will keep winds in the 10 to 15 kt through much of the period.
Seas will remain right around 2 ft for both days for most
places, with 3 footers present well offshore.
Long term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
as of 300 am Sunday...a return flow develops on Wednesday as
high pressure takes residence over the western Atlantic. A S to
SW wind around 10 kts or less will persist Wed and thurs in a
more Spring-like pattern. Winds will back and spike up each
afternoon near shore as sea breeze develops. Seas will remain 3
ft or less through the period with a slight increase by Fri
morning as southerly winds begin to increase.