Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kilm 191439
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1030 am EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
Hurricane Jose will continue to lift off to the north leaving
dry and warm weather across the area through much of the week.
An increased rip current risk will linger along some beaches
due to continued swells. Hurricane Maria is expected to track to
the north offshore of the Carolinas during the middle of next
week but uncertainty remains. Maria is a powerful hurricane,
bringing increasingly strong rip currents and dangerous marine
conditions to the area late this week through at least early
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1030 am Tuesday...one last band of low clouds rotating into
Pender and New Hanover counties around the large gyre that is
Hurricane Jose. This 1.5kft layer of stratocumulus should mix out
with some additional heating leaving a sunny day area-wide. Jose's
local effects will continue to be confined to beach/marine
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...a broad and amorphous high pressure
pattern will hold over eastern Continental U.S. As distant Hurricane Jose
spins and circles offshore New England. With subsidence in the
wake of Jose fading, an increasingly unstable and moistening
column will allow for the re-introduction of pops to the short
term. Expect at least isolated diurnally focused convection for
both Wednesday and Thursday, although a couple of hard to time
upper disturbances may extend pops into the evening hours. A
warming trend will make for above-average temperatures, with
highs in the upper 80s both days, and lows in the upper 60s.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 1200 PM Monday...persistent high pressure will be
reinforced from the north Fri and Sat. Did include a small risk
for a shower or thunderstorm Thu, before high pressure
strengthens across the area. Did include a small risk for an
afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze Sat and
Monday's forecast will hinge to a large degree on the track and
strength of powerful Hurricane Maria and we will be watching
the tropics especially closely. Tropical cyclone Jose or its
remnants will be virtually stalled southeast of New England late in the
week and may actually begin to drift S Fri and through the
weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to be a powerful hurricane
as she approaches during the weekend. Her forerunner swell
energy will begin to be felt on the Carolina beaches late week
which will increase the breaking wave heights and rip current
risk. A high risk for rip currents is likely this weekend and
early next week. Much too early to have any confidence in a
track forecast for Maria as she approaches the southeast coast.
Some of the models continue to show interaction between Maria
and Jose early next week and Jose may play a part in the path
Maria ultimately takes as she gains latitude and approaches the
U.S. East Coast.
Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s Thu and Fri and lower to
mid 80s thereafter. Lows will be mainly in the 60s.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 12z...with the exception of ilm this morning, good
confidence VFR through the period for all terminals. Fair to low
confidence that stratus with cigs from 0.8 to 1.5 kft will
impinge upon ilm this morning until around 13z, bringing IFR to
MVFR conditions for this morning. Latest satellite loops show
stratus deck steadily advancing in ilm's direction.
Extended outlook...mainly VFR conditions through the period are
expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low
clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest
risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200z timeframe each
near term /through tonight/... as of 1030 am Tuesday...the distant
and departing Jose is still the marine weather-maker for the marine
environment. Winds remain out of the north-northwest and dominant wave periods
are quite high (12-13 seconds at 41013) though the overall heights
have fallen to where no headlines are needed.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...distant Jose's influence will be be
quite minimal during the short term. Broad and ill-defined high
pressure over the waters will keep winds in the 10 kt range,
with seas of 2 to 4 ft through the period.
Long term /Friday through Saturday/...
as of 1200 PM Monday...the risk for Small Craft Advisory seas
is increasing this weekend. Weak high pressure will prevail
through the period but will become better established from the
north late week. Long period swell, the forerunners of powerful
Hurricane Maria, will begin to reach our waters during this
time. The swell energy looks to become significant Fri and Sat.
The swell direction will be from the southeast. Guidance is showing
periods of around 15 seconds at Frying Pan Shoals with wave
heights increasing from 4 to 5 ft Fri to 6 to 7 ft Sat. The
swell will further increase sun and Mon which will result in
higher wave heights.
as of 300 am Tuesday...the lower Cape Fear will continue to see
high astronomical tides again with high tides today. A coastal
flood advisory was issued for water levels almost a half foot
above the advisory threshold for downtown Wilmington. Minor
flooding will occur around the times of high tide within an hour
or so of 930 am and again around 1030 PM tonight downtown, and
more coastal flood advisories are likely according to tidal
predictions through at least the first day of fall. This year
the autumnal equinox occurs on September 22nd at 2002z.
NC...coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for ncz107.