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fxus62 kilm 230150 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
850 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

temperatures will remain well above normal this week. A weak
trough may bring spotty showers to the region early Thursday.
Near record highs are possible Friday. A cold front approaching
from the west, will bring a slight chance of showers Saturday.
Cooler and drier air will build into the area Saturday night
and linger for the start of next week. Shower chances will
increase during the middle of next week as a cold front
approaches from the west.


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 830 PM Wednesday...a progressive upper closed low over
the northeast Gulf of Mexico, will continue to push
east-southeast overnight, reaching the Miami area by daybreak
Thu. It's associated sfc low, having been caught much earlier,
will basically take the same Route. Not much intensification
expected or progged with the sfc and upper lows. In fact,
latest satellite and radar imagery make these upper and sfc
features look much worse then what they really are.
Nevertheless, have kept the ilm County Warning Area pcpn free overnight with
possible -shra just offshore during the pre-dawn Thu hours. The
thicker and deeper overcast skies will remain south of the ilm
County Warning Area. The forecast area will observe mainly mid and high level clouds with
possible low level clouds closer to the coast and especially
the southernmost portions of the forecast area. At this point, will
indicate patchy to areas of fog overnight with it scouring out
by daylight mid-morning Thu. Cloudiness at different levels will
limit, if any, the possibility of observing dense fog. Will
continue with current lows with very little massaging applied.

As of 3 PM low level wind flow to prevail now
through the overnight period. Fog late tonight not a slam dunk
for any one location, but given the impeding effects of cloud
cover, did include patches after midnight, and a few segments of
low level stratus may develop. Isolated coastal showers late
tonight to daybreak Thursday a possibility as moderate cumulus
tracks southeast to northwest landward. All this in part to a low pressure
system crossing Florida tonight with a rain shield extending north
from it and high pressure off the Outer Banks. Lows to settle
slowly into the middle and upper 50s to around 60 at the beaches
in onshore flow.


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
as of 3 PM the low pressure system moves seaward
off the Treasure Coast of Florida daybreak Thursday, and across the
Bahamas through the day, a slight chance of an ocean shower near
the coast locally remains intact, tapering late in the day.
Should be a multi-layered mix of low/mid/high clouds, but
partly sunny at times through the changeable sky portrait. The
warmth entrenched amid the upper level ridging will allow Max
temps well into the 70s Thursday despite the clouds. As the low
loosens it grip to sea Friday with an upper ridge in place, very
warm, to record breaking highs on tap, upper 70s to around 80
away from the cooling affects of sea temperatures. No cold air
this period with lows in the 50s Thursday and Friday nights.


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 3 PM Wednesday...cold front will be pushed across the area
late Sat with southerly flow and subsidence ahead of the front
contributing to temps well above climo. Front is likely to pass dry
for most areas but cannot rule out an evening shower, especially
across inland NC. Will maintain inherited slight chc pop but
confidence in measurable rainfall is low. Cold advection Sat night
into sun will drop temps back to where they should be for late Feb
however, cooler temps are short lived.

Mid level pattern transitions to progressive for the start of the
work week as the 5h trough lifts Northeast. Passage of a warm front
Mon may not be accompanied by any rainfall but it will begin a
period of warm advection, pushing temps above climo. Low pressure
moving northeast through the Ohio Valley will drag a surface trough
across the area early Tue. The 5h feature associated with the
surface low is weak and deamplifying as it lifts into the northeast
so there is really no cold advection behind the boundary. There may
be some light isolated shower activity with the trough passage Mon
night and Tue, will carry silent pop for now. Deep west flow behind
the front Tue helps warm and dry the region with flow becoming more
southwest on Wed. Increasing warm advection ahead of approaching
cold front will push temps well above climo Tue night through Wed
night and may lead to some convection late Wed or Wed night, just
ahead of the front.


Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 00z...potential for MVFR due to areas of fog in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Otherwise expect VFR through the
valid taf period with mainly scattered/bkn/ovc high clouds.

VFR prevails this evening with light east-southeasterly winds and
scattered/broken cirrus, with pockets of mid clouds scattered about as
well. Expect this trend to continue overnight, with latest
guidance continuing to suggest areas of MVFR due to fog just
before daybreak. After daybreak, any fog will quickly disperse,
giving way to VFR with light easterly winds becoming east-southeast
in the afternoon, around 5 to 10 kts. Would not rule out an
isolated light shower overnight into Thursday morning, but given
lower confidence have not introduced into going taf attm.

Extended outlook...showers possible Saturday with a cold front.
Otherwise expect VFR.


near term /through tonight/...
as of 830 PM Wednesday...expect some influence from the upper
and sfc lows respectively, moving ESE from the northeast Gulf of
Mexico this evening, across southern Florida to around Miami
by daybreak Thu. This will yield a sfc pressure pattern and
relaxed gradient across the ilm local waters, resulting in
winds from the east to east-southeast around 10 kt. Significant seas have been
mainly influenced by an easterly ground swell at 9 second
periods with short period wind chop thrown on top. Overall,
looking at a 2 to 4 foot range, with the hier seas across the
southernmost portions of the local waters, ie. South of Murrells
Inlet. Scec and/or Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed during the next

as of 3 PM Wednesday...seas 2.5-3.5 feet, mainly in east-southeast wave
energy in mixed periods of 6 seconds and 8-9 seconds, chiseled
with a moderate wind chop. This regime will hold for the most
part overnight with a few showers moving inshore by the pre-dawn
hours. No thunderstorms expected and no dense marine fog expected, but a
light sea mist of 4-5 nm is possible in the balmy onshore flow.
Winds southeast-east-southeast prevails between 7-17 knots through early Thursday.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
as of 3 PM a low pressure system tonight, moves
across Florida then offshore Thursday/Fri, winds will tend to east-northeast-east Thursday
and NE Friday. No advisories appear to be needed although inshore winds
may gust to 20 knots both Thursday/Friday afternoon. Friday we will see the
arrival southeast waves of 3-6 feet arriving in 8-10 seconds intervals and
a Small Craft Advisory is possible. Isolated marine showers should
be expected Thursday but they will pull to sea on Friday. No thunderstorms
expected this period.

Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
as of 3 PM Wednesday...increasing southwest flow Sat into Sat
night will become northwest overnight as a cold front moves east
across the waters. Ahead of the front pinched gradient results
in solid 20 kt southwest flow. Following the front, the gradient
and presence of cold advection will maintain solid 20 kt
offshore winds through daybreak. Speeds decrease during sun,
dropping under 15 kt in the afternoon but remain northwest into
the evening before dropping under 10 kt and backing to southwest
for Monday. Southwest flow Mon will be 10 kt or less. Seas 4 to
5 ft Sat into sun steadily decrease from 2 to 4 ft to 2 to 3 ft
sun and will be 2 ft or less Mon.


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...



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