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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
144 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

high pressure will expand across the Carolinas, maintaining
uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening. The chances increase heading into early next week.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1020 am changes to the forecast as today begins
our second legit heat wave of the Summer. Heat advisory in effect
for today and 12z area raobs still show too much mid level dry air
for any meaningful precipitation chances.


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 400 am Tuesday...ridging aloft and at the sfc will dominate
the weather across the ilm County Warning Area this period. The upper ridging and
warm temps aloft will limit lapse rates and maintain the
convective lid across the fa this period. Some weakness in this
lid could occur especially on Thu, in which the sea breeze could
end up with a few or more than a few isolated storms along it.
The sfc ridge axis from the high's center well offshore, will
shunt slightly southward this period. This will result in SW-WSW
winds on Wed and mainly WSW-W winds on Thu. This westerly
direction may also result in isolated storm(s) drifting into the
ilm County Warning Area from cae or rah cwas. The sfc pg will remain semi-
tightened this period, resulting with active overnight winds
around 5 mph, and 5 to 15 mph, during the midday thru early
evening hrs. The winds associated with the inland progressing sea
breeze will keep speeds in the higher end of this range. Wind
gusts of 20+ mph will occur along the immediate coast at the
height of the sea breeze and could approach these gusts again at
the coast during the overnight period due to the mixing of the
nocturnal low level jet to the sfc. Basically, sfc mixing will
keep fog formation to a minimum at best. Used a consensus of the
GFS and NAM MOS guidance for daily Max/min temps due to their
better performance verification-wise as of late. With mid to upper
90s for highs and sfc dewpoints slightly increasing to the 75 to
80 degree range, the late morning thru early evening heat indices
should easily surpass heat advisory thresholds and is currently
advertised in the hazardous weather outlook.


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...Atlantic ridge of high pressure will slip
farther to the south and east and weaken into early next week as
trough moves east from the Mississippi Valley. This will allow h5
heights to slip and temps to lower slightly, as well as, reduce
the subsidence and dry air aloft giving way to increased chance of
shwrs/tstms heading into the latter half of the weekend and early
next week.

Initially expect only isolated convection along sea breeze front
with main convective development farther west along Piedmont
trough and farther north along lingering frontal boundary on Fri.
The persistent moist SW flow around Atlantic high will bring pcp
water values up above 2 inches over the weekend into early next
week. This will combine with enhanced lift as mid to upper trough
moves east into the Carolinas to produce stronger and more
widespread shwr/tstm activity...especially sun/Mon. By late Mon,
it looks like front/trough will move east into local forecast

Temperatures in the mid 90s on Fri into Sat will drop down
slowly, aided by lowering h5 heights and increasing clouds and
convection into early next week. Heat indices will remain high,
remaining between 100 and 105 most days.


Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 18z...VFR is expected through the 24 hour taf valid period.
It is very unlikely that any convection will develop today due to
very dry air aloft. However, a scattered layer of cumulus with bases
around 4 kft should develop this afternoon, and then fade with
the sunset.

Extended outlook...isolated to scattered afternoon convection
through Sunday may create brief periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise
expect VFR.


near term /through tonight/...
as of 645 am Tuesday...high pressure will ridge across the area
waters from the high's center well offshore from the southeast
U.S. States. The Carolinas trof...Aka Piedmont...will Orient
itself across the western Carolinas. Enough of a sfc pg will
result across the ilm waters, producing SW 10 to 15 kt winds.
Nearshore this afternoon and evening, winds will become
temporarily south-southwest at 10 to 20 kt due to the inland progressing sea
breeze. Significant seas will range between 2 and 3 ft today, and
up to 4 ft for the ilm NC waters late tonight. This due to SW
winds around 15 kt with gusts 20+ kt across all waters due to the
mixing of the low level SW jet to the ocean sfc.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...the ridging from the sfc high will be
suppressed slightly to the south of its current location this
period. This will increase the westerly component in the wind
directions during this period. The sfc pg will also tighten
slightly as a result of the ridge axis oriented further south.
The daily inland progression of the sea breeze may be limited due
to the increase in the westerly component of the winds...and
speeds. A daily nocturnal low level jet will develop each evening
and peak during the pre-dawn hrs. Overall, looking at SW-WSW winds
at 10 to 15 kt except up to 20 kt during the overnight
periods...and...nearshore during the peak of the sea breeze
cycle, from the late afternoon thru mid evening hrs. Significant
seas will run 2 to 4 ft with the 4 footers primarily occurring
during the overnight periods and possibly nearshore in the
aftn/mid evening. Convection, if any, will mainly be isolated.

Long term /Friday through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...south to SW flow will continue between
Bermuda high pressure and Piedmont trough inland. Winds will
basically remain between 10 and 15 kts, but should become gusty
each aftn due to sea breeze and may increase again overnight in
nocturnal jet. This will produce a spike in seas late aftn into
the evening with overall seas remaining in the 2 to 4 ft range.


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...heat advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for scz017-023-024-
NC...heat advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ncz087-096-099-



near term...dch
short term...dch
long term...rgz

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