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000 
FXUS62 KILM 221732
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1232 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain well above normal this week. A week 
trough may bring spotty showers to the region early Thursday. 
Near record highs are possible Friday. A cold front approaching
from the west, will bring a chance of showers on Saturday.
Cooler and drier air will build into the area Saturday night 
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1232 PM Wednesday...No significant changes needed, but did
up the wind gust factor as we see occasional but fairly widespread
gusts up to 20 mph across the region. Notably cooler at beaches
this afternoon compered to inland venues. 

As of 10 AM Wednesday...On a larger scale rain surrounds the
region but little if any will make it into NE SC and SE NC
today. As an upper low crosses FL today and rides to the NE, we
may see a coastal shower late tonight or early Thursday, but
even this does not show much rainfall promise, more clouds than
anything. A quick warm-up this morning will bring us well into
the 70s this afternoon and a bit cooler near the sea, as a
resultant sea breeze circulation strengthens. No major changes 
but reduced cloud cover in the early going.


As of 3 AM Wednesday...An upper low and its developing surface 
reflection swing southeast out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 
then across southern Florida and then over the Bahamas by the end of 
the period. Meanwhile, a coastal trough will continue to develop. 
Mid-levels will remain quite dry although satellite loops and model 
soundings show an extensive cirrus deck will continue to cover the 
eastern Carolinas. SE flow will also advect in low level moisture 
which may enhance fog development overnight. Dry mid levels and lack 
of any strong triggers makes for another dry day with pops remaining 
silent.  Temperatures will continue to run unseasonably warm, with 
highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...An upper low and its surface reflection as 
mentioned in the Near Term discussion above will swing NE from the 
Bahamas, passing well offshore the Cape Fear Region late Friday.A 
coastal trough will move ashore on Thursday while a cold front 
approaching from the NW approaches the Appalachian mountains. 
Isolated showers are possible Thursday as the trough moves ashore, 
otherwise the short term will remain dry. Weak forcing Thursday 
means QPF values will remain on the minimal side for any showers 
that manage to develop. There will be a warming trend with 
temperatures remaining well above normal. Many locations away 
from the beaches could see highs of around 80 on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Mid level low pressure sweeping across the upper 
midwest will push a cold front across the area Saturday with minimal 
moisture. The timing has stepped back a little from recent runs and 
this should allow high temperatures to soar to near 80 degrees in 
some spots. We continue to advertise slight chance pops with the 
system. Beyond this the mid level pattern transitions to zonal then 
a somewhat southwest flow develops early next week. This will allow 
another dramatic warmup after cooling down to just touch climatology 
briefly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR expected for the most part with ceilings generally 
limited to cirrus level. Some transient clouds cannot be ruled out 
at around 5kft however in the onshore flow. Inland terminals may 
also have a very brief MVFR visibility but the high clouds should 
preclude anything more. 

Extended Outlook...Isolated showers through Thursday. Showers 
possible Saturday with a cold front. Otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
As of 1232 AM Wednesday...No changes needed to the marine 
forecast as 3 foot seas prevail, closer to 4 FT very outer 
portion. Did up wind gusts this afternoon. Main wave energy E 
waves 2-3 feet every 9 seconds with a moderate chop on the 
waters. Inshore winds may become a bit gusty and chop more 
choppier in the afternoon as the sea breeze kicks up. 

As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure over the waters combined 
with a developing low moving over the Bahamas will bring east 
winds of around 10 kts with seas of 2 to 3 ft today. Seas will 
build slightly overnight, becoming a more solid 3 ft throughout 
by daybreak on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Longwave swell generated by a developing
low over the Bahamas will bring increasingly high combined sea 
heights, with Small Craft Advisory criteria possibly being met 
by Thursday night as the seas build. Winds will remain easterly 
and relatively modest however, as the low will not strongly 
intensify and should remain well offshore through the period. DO
not see winds exceeding 15 kts through this period and most 
locations will be more in the 10 kt range. The exception could 
be the very near shore waters on Friday, when a strong land/sea 
temperature contrast could enhance the sea breeze effect during 
the afternoon, with winds gusting up around 20 kts.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...A southwest flow of 10-15 knots will be in place 
to start the period and as a cold front moves across Saturday winds 
will take on a more westerly component. Speeds also increase to 15-
20 knots. Wind direction veers even further to northwest by Sunday 
morning. Speeds decrease later Sunday. Regarding seas, small craft 
levels will be reached and continue probably through early Sunday 
morning.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

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