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fxus63 kict 191748 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Short term...(today through Saturday night)
issued at 320 am CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Today-tonight:
front will lift lift north this morning with increasing south flow
across the area. At least some cirrus will linger over the area
most of the day as well. Anticipating temperatures will be close
yesterday. Winds will fall off only slightly at sunset, leading to
warmer lows tonight.

Friday:
increasing surface pressure gradient will result in advisory
criteria winds for at least central Kansas and possibly some of south
central Kansas. Clouds and low level moisture will be on the increase
during the day, but temperatures still should approach those on
Thursday given warm start and some breaks in the clouds early
afternoon. Some models dribble out some quantitative precipitation forecast in the afternoon in
far southwest sections, aided by a ripple in upper flow. This
seems less probable, given weak forcing and cap. Seems more likely
closer to nose of moisture advection well to the northeast. Winds
will remain quite brisk Friday night, leading to very warm minimums.

Saturday:
GFS and European model (ecmwf) remain fairly close on timing of frontal passage
during the day. NAM appears to be a fast outlier. The front will
traverse the over half the forecast area during the daylight
hours. Some strong-severe storms are expected given the sufficient
but lower end shear and instability. Temperatures could be a
challenge given warm air advection/warm start ahead of the front.
The progressive front should limit heavy rain threat although 1-2
inches are possible in southeast Kansas. -Howerton

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 320 am CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Rapid clearing anticipated on Sunday. Still thinking temperatures
may be a bit cool on both Sunday/Monday given dry airmass,
abundant sunset and low level downslope flow. Discrepancies in
medium range models on upper flow pattern dominate the remainder
of this forecast. Given run to run uncertainty, no adjustments
were made to initialization grids. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Main aviation concern will be wind shear overnight along with
strong south winds on Fri.

Water vapor imagery shows an upper impulse approaching The Four
Corners region with much more robust upper energy about to come on
shore over the Pacific northwest. As this occurs, low pressure
will strengthen over the High Plains which will crank up south
winds across the entire area. Should see some wind shear overnight
with 45kt SW winds expected by the time you get to 2,000ft. South
winds by early Fri afternoon should be sustained around 30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph, especially for areas west of I-135.
Confidence remain high that VFR conditions will remain in place
through the next 24 hours.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 80 57 77 66 / 0 0 10 10
Hutchinson 81 57 76 65 / 0 0 10 10
Newton 81 57 76 66 / 0 0 10 10
Eldorado 80 57 77 65 / 0 0 10 10
Winfield-kwld 79 57 77 66 / 0 0 10 20
Russell 83 60 78 65 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 82 59 77 65 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 82 58 78 67 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 81 57 76 66 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 79 55 77 65 / 0 0 0 20
Chanute 79 54 77 64 / 0 0 0 20
Iola 79 54 77 64 / 0 0 0 20
Parsons-kppf 79 54 77 64 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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