Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kict 291157 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
657 am CDT Mon may 29 2017

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 301 am CDT Mon may 29 2017

Northwest flow pattern will continue to dominate the weather pattern for
the next couple of days. A weak cold front located across central
Nebraska will slowly drop south during the morning hours,
"backdooring" its way across the forecast area by the afternoon.
Some question on where this front will be located for the afternoon
hours, but current hi-rez models suggest it will be lingering across
southern Kansas. Latest NAM/WRF and GFS both suggest some
instability with SBCAPE around 1000 j/kg with a weakly capped
environment. Not alot of forcing, but with the weakly capped
environment, suggests an isolated shower/storm or two may develop
across srn Kansas for the late afternoon or early evening hours during
Max heating. Given the lack of widespread forcing, think only
isolated showers/storms are the main concern.

Isentropic lift across srn OK and SW Kansas will increase this evening
and tonight. This mid level lift will certainly lead to increasing
mid level clouds, but may also lead to some widely scattered
showers/storms just to the west of the forecast area. If a
shower/storms can develop , the steering flow suggests that they
will drift east/southeast across portions of south central Kansas
late tonight through early Tue morning. Not alot of elevated
instability so probably more showers than thunder. Will go with a
low pop for this chance.

NW flow pattern will lead to another weak frontal boundary dropping
south across the forecast area during the day on Tue. Instability
will actually increase some for Tue afternoon (albeit weak) across
the eastern half of the forecast area. Given the weak instability
and some convergence, afternoon heating may once again lead to
another isolated shower/thunderstorm chance for areas northeast and
east of Wichita. Could see this isolated shower/storm chance linger
across most of southern Kansas for Tue evening/night as well, as the
front washes out. Given bulk shear of 30-40kts a few strong storms
may be possible.

Ketcham

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 301 am CDT Mon may 29 2017

Northwest flow slowly shifts east of the area for Tue night, with gradually
increasing mid level heights and a return to warmer southerly flow
for Wed into the weekend. This return moist flow will lead to
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over the High
Plains, for the late afternoon and overnight hours. Mean mid level
steering flow suggests some of this activity will drop east-
southeast into the forecast each night. Latest model consensus
pops look a tad overdone, especially during the daylight hours. So
thinking the Wed- Fri time frame will not be quite the "wash out"
that the model pops suggest, but think some widely scattered
showers/storms will be around for the overnight and morning hours.
Severe chances look fairly low given the weak shear pattern for
the end of the week, but some moderate instability may lead to a
few strong storms.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 657 am CDT Mon may 29 2017

All areas remain VFR with variable cloudiness limited to ~10,000ft
altocumulus. A weak southeast sagging cold front that was about to cross
the Kansas/OK border at issuance should stall as it ventures further
into OK & with weak high pressure spreading slowly S/southeast northwest winds
~13kts should become light & variable early this evening. Some
light showers are possible across primarily south-central Kansas late
this afternoon & this evening but very limited coverage dictated
leaving "vcsh" out of kict & khut at this time.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 84 58 82 61 / 20 20 20 30
Hutchinson 81 56 81 58 / 10 20 30 30
Newton 81 57 80 59 / 10 20 30 30
Eldorado 82 58 81 60 / 20 20 30 40
Winfield-kwld 85 59 83 61 / 20 20 20 30
Russell 78 53 81 56 / 10 20 30 20
Great Bend 80 54 81 56 / 0 20 30 20
Salina 80 54 81 57 / 0 10 40 20
McPherson 80 55 81 58 / 10 20 40 30
Coffeyville 85 58 82 61 / 20 20 20 30
Chanute 83 57 81 60 / 20 20 30 30
Iola 82 56 80 59 / 20 20 30 40
Parsons-kppf 84 58 82 60 / 20 20 30 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations