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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
553 am CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 153 am CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A shortwave trough was lifting northeast out of north. Mexico spreading
widespread rain across S. Texas and points downstream across the
lower Mississippi Valley area and much of the southeastern U.S.
While another shortwave trough was moving eastward across the
northern rockies.

As the mid lvl flow increases over the central rockies today, the
pressure gradient will tighten resulting in breezy southerly winds
returning to central Kansas helping to drive temperatures into the 50s.
The northern stream shortwave trough will drive a cold front south
across the region tonight with 850 mb cold air advection driving temperatures down.
Highs on Tuesday will struggle to reach 40 across central Kansas while
highs climb into the low 40s near the OK state line. Another
progressive shortwave trough is progged to move out of the central
Great Basin area and into the central rockies late Tuesday night
spreading light snow downstream across the Central Plains states and
into central Kansas mainly after 08-10z. Recent trends have supported a
northward shift of the deeper isothermal layer and more favorable
snow growth zone lowering confidence for accumulating snow across
southern Kansas on Wednesday. Generally trended accumulations and pops
down near the OK state line and maintained a 2-3 inch accumulation
swath along the I-70 corridor. The progressive nature of the
shortwave trough appears to be the biggest limiting factor for
higher accumulations with only a narrow 3-5 hour window for
accumulating snow. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow may still be
needed, especially across our central Kansas counties.

Drier, subsident air will arrive Wednesday night with continued low
level cold air advection driving lows into the single digits across
much of central Kansas while teens will be common over southeast Kansas.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 153 am CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Surface high pressure will settle over the Central Plains on
Thursday-Thursday night allowing strong radiational cooling and
single digit lows across most of the area. Highs will struggle to
reach 20 over portions of central Kansas while highs rise into the
upper 20s near the OK state line. Low level southerly flow will
return on Friday-Saturday with moderating temperatures and dry
weather conditions. Maintained low pops on Sunday with a
progressive zonal flow but confidence in measurable precipitation
remains low at this time.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 552 am CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Brief MVFR-IFR conditions possible early this morning at kcnu as
modest low level moisture advects north just ahead of high level
clouds. Otherwise increasing winds expected gradient increases
ahead of front. Cold front will sweep across the entire forecast
area during second half of forecast. Went a bit faster than models
suggest for frontal passage tonight based on typical night time
bias. -Howerton

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 55 30 41 25 / 0 10 0 20
Hutchinson 53 27 40 22 / 0 10 0 30
Newton 53 27 39 22 / 0 10 0 20
Eldorado 54 29 40 24 / 0 10 0 20
Winfield-kwld 55 31 42 26 / 10 10 0 10
Russell 55 23 38 18 / 0 0 0 50
Great Bend 55 24 39 19 / 0 10 0 40
Salina 56 25 40 21 / 0 10 0 30
McPherson 53 26 39 21 / 0 10 0 30
Coffeyville 53 34 43 27 / 10 20 0 10
Chanute 53 31 42 26 / 10 10 0 10
Iola 53 30 41 25 / 10 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 54 33 43 27 / 10 20 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...mwm
long term...mwm
aviation...pjh

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