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fxus63 kict 282002 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
302 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Forecast highlights/challenges continue to focus around
thunderstorm chances this evening/tonight through Friday evening,
and again Sunday into next week.

This evening-tonight...could see an isolated thunderstorm or two
after 5-7 PM generally north of Great Bend to Salina, as a weak
frontal zone/wind shift approaches from the northwest. Upper
support is negligible to non-existent and surface convergence is
weak, so there's a chance the cap will not be breached for storm
development. However, if a storm or two can manage to form, strong
instability coupled with modest deep layer shear would promote
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Thinking
thunderstorm chances will gradually increase in coverage across
northern and northwest Kansas as the evening progresses, mainly
along/north of I- 70, as a strengthening low-level jet impinges on
the nearly stalled frontal zone, and subtle shortwave approaches
from the west. This activity may initially pose a large hail
threat, but should gradually transition to a wind threat, with
sporadic damaging wind occurrences possible.

Thursday...severe storm development is a bit more uncertain than
previously thought Thursday afternoon-evening. Latest short-term
guidance suggests tonight's thunderstorm complex will track a bit
further north than previously thought, which makes sense given the
orientation and location of the better 700mb thermal gradient and
rap instability axis. This lends confidence in thursday's frontal
placement from northeast KS, southwest into central and southwest
Kansas. However, like today weak upper forcing and relatively warm
mid- level temperatures may tend to limit thunderstorm coverage
along the front during the late afternoon, with chances possibly
holding off altogether until the evening and overnight when better
upper forcing approaches from the west and the low-level jet
increases. Regardless, strong instability coupled with modest deep
layer shear will support severe weather with any storms that can
develop during the evening, with the threat transitioning to
isolated damaging wind occurrences and locally heavy rain Thursday
night, as activity moves into eastern/southeast Kansas.

Friday...threat for storms could linger over far southeast Kansas for
Friday afternoon-evening, especially if Thursday night's
thunderstorm complex remains on the smaller side and doesn't
accelerate the frontal zone south into Oklahoma. If so, severe
storms along with heavy rain are possible. Otherwise, cooler
weather begins arriving by Friday in wake of the frontal passage.

Saturday...fairly quiet weather expected, as high pressure builds
south in wake of the frontal passage.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Sunday through mid next week...low confidence/low predictability
forecast for Sunday and beyond. Operational model consensus
suggests unsettled weather returning for at least Sunday and
Monday as an upper wave slowly migrates over mid-America. Weak
upper flow should prevent widespread severe storms, although a few
strong to marginally severe storms appear possible given
instability, along with locally heavy rain. Model solutions
diverge from Tuesday and beyond, with the GFS keeping an unsettled
weather pattern all week, and the European model (ecmwf) building the upper ridge
from the southwest, resulting in better chances for quiet and warm
weather. For now will carry slight chance to chance pops for
thunderstorm through mid-week.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Main concern is thunderstorm chances with sagging front. Thinking
atmosphere will remain capped through the afternoon, waiting for
combo of front and low level jet to initiate storms, although
small window around 0000 UTC where heating and convergence could
break cap earlier. A lot of possible scenerios on how long/where
convection would persist overnight. Anticipate krsl/ksln will have
best chance and have forecast highest probability in the evening
with thunderstorms in the vicinity. -Howerton


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 73 96 69 86 / 10 10 40 30
Hutchinson 72 96 66 85 / 10 20 40 20
Newton 72 94 67 84 / 10 20 50 30
Eldorado 72 92 68 84 / 10 10 50 40
Winfield-kwld 74 94 71 86 / 0 10 40 40
Russell 68 94 64 85 / 40 20 30 20
Great Bend 69 95 65 85 / 20 20 30 10
Salina 70 95 67 86 / 40 20 40 10
McPherson 71 95 66 85 / 10 20 40 20
Coffeyville 73 91 72 86 / 0 0 40 50
Chanute 72 90 70 84 / 10 10 50 50
Iola 71 90 69 84 / 10 10 50 50
Parsons-kppf 73 90 71 85 / 0 0 40 50


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.


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