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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 305 am CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Scattered convection is expected to continue tracking out of
western Kansas early this morning with a chance some of this may
graze western portions of the forecast area. Confidence in storms
this afternoon is low due to lack of a clear cut focus. Feel the
best chance for afternoon storms will be over northwest Kansas/SW Nebraska
due to upslope processes as rich low level moisture rolls west.
Better storm chances are expected to arrive tonight with both the
GFS and NAM hinting at some weak upper energy moving out of
southern Wyoming and into the High Plains. In response, 850-700mb flow
will veer around setting up an area of warm advection and moisture
transport.

While confidence is high that an mesoscale convective system will develop tonight, the
question will be whether it primarily remains north of the
forecast area closer to the better jet dynamics, or if it
develops over east-central Kansas where mid level baroclinic zone
will be situated. Northwest flow aloft will setup very good veering shear
profiles late this afternoon and overnight, especially over
central Kansas. So, if storms can get going late this afternoon or
tonight, feel some large hail can't be ruled out. A few storms may
linger Sun morning over eastern Kansas before some weak upper ridging
moves in.

Still confident in a warming trend starting sun with 850mb temps
off both the GFS and NAM supporting mid to upper 90s across most
of the area.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 305 am CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

850-700mb temps will continue to warm to start the work week
providing another stretch of above normal temps. 850mb temps off
medium range models continue to support upper 90s to around 100
for Mon-Thu. European model (ecmwf) and GFS agree on tracking some shortwave energy
across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba later in the week which
will allow a cold front to attempt to push south. Confidence on
this front making it into the forecast area is very low at this
time. There is some model agreement in it hanging up over
southern Nebraska/far northern Kansas.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Early morning showers and thunderstorms continue to dissipate
this afternoon across the area. There is the potential for
additional development of thunderstorms later today into the
overnight hours. The big question is where storms will developed.
The main concern through 00z will be whether or not storms develop
on the outflow of a complex of storms dropping south-southeast
across northeast Kansas this afternoon. Per this concern, have
included mentions of thunderstorms in the vicinity at the ksln terminal through the late
afternoon/early evening hours. It is possible that additional
storms will develop later this afternoon and into the overnight
hours; however, confidence was not high enough to include mentions
at this time as the more pronounced lift and moisture transport is
aimed northeast of the area and upslope convection aided by lift
along the warm front northwest of the area very well may weaken
before impacting krsl/kgbd this evening.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 89 72 96 76 / 50 30 10 10
Hutchinson 89 71 96 74 / 50 30 10 10
Newton 88 71 95 75 / 30 40 20 10
Eldorado 88 71 94 74 / 30 40 20 10
Winfield-kwld 89 73 96 75 / 40 30 10 10
Russell 89 70 98 73 / 30 30 10 10
Great Bend 89 70 98 74 / 40 30 10 10
Salina 88 71 95 75 / 20 40 20 10
McPherson 89 71 95 74 / 30 40 20 10
Coffeyville 89 72 92 74 / 20 30 30 10
Chanute 87 71 91 74 / 20 40 30 10
Iola 87 70 91 73 / 20 40 40 10
Parsons-kppf 88 72 91 74 / 20 40 30 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...rbl
long term...rbl
aviation...jmr

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