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fxus63 kict 161143 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
543 am CST Sat Dec 16 2017

..updated for aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 314 am CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper low slowly approaching Chihuahua
Mexico with additional shortwave energy stretching from the
northern intermountain into central California.

Upper wave over Mexico is expected to quickly lift northeast
today and tonight. In response, low pressure will strengthen over
the Lee of The Rockies allowing for gusty south winds to be in
place. This will result in very high grassland fire danger across
most of the area as afternoon rh's range from 25% to 30%.

Still good model agreement in the upper impulse quickly lifting
over the Southern Plains and across the Ozark region by early Sun
morning. This feature will produce widespread precip across most
of eastern Kansas tonight into Sun morning. Still looking like light
rainfall amounts with the upper limit around a quarter inch.
Did go ahead and trim back the northwest fringes of the rainfall,
which places Wichita on the NW extent of the rainfall tonight.

By Sun afternoon, the shortwave energy diving out of the NW Continental U.S.
Is expected to consolidate into another closed low over the Desert
Southwest by Mon morning. This feature is expected to track across
the Southern Plains Mon night through Tue night. There is some
small discrepancies between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) with how far north
the impulse tracks, so will leave some small precip chances in for
Tue night with low confidence in this panning out.

Long term...(wednesday through friday)
issued at 314 am CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Still good agreement between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS in a more robust
shortwave diving out of the Pacific northwest and into the Great
Basin by Wed evening. Surface low pressure ahead of this wave will
deepen over the High Plains Wed, which will provide one last day
of above normal temps before a strong cold front pushes through.
Latest guidance has sped up the timing of the cold front with it
expected to move through by early Thu afternoon and possibly as
early as Thu morning. May see some light rain changing to light
snow near or behind the front Thu, but not expecting any kind of
significant snowfall accumulation. The bigger story will the
abrupt change in temps. Looking like highs on Fri will struggle to
get out of the 30s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 543 am CST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions and breezy south/southwest winds will prevail
today. Rain chances along with potential for low VFR or MVFR will
increase from the south later tonight, especially across southern
and eastern Kansas, as an upper level disturbance approaches from
the south.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 60 40 50 31 / 0 30 20 10
Hutchinson 59 37 48 27 / 0 20 10 0
Newton 59 38 48 30 / 0 30 20 10
Eldorado 58 40 50 32 / 0 50 30 10
Winfield-kwld 59 41 51 32 / 0 50 20 10
Russell 61 29 44 23 / 0 10 10 0
Great Bend 61 31 44 23 / 0 10 10 0
Salina 60 35 48 27 / 0 10 10 0
McPherson 59 36 47 27 / 0 20 10 0
Coffeyville 60 42 52 37 / 0 90 40 10
Chanute 60 41 51 36 / 0 90 50 10
Iola 60 41 51 36 / 0 90 60 10
Parsons-kppf 60 41 52 36 / 0 90 40 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

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