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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1225 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Update...
issued at 1025 am CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Stratus/low clouds continue to slowly burn off across central and
south central Kansas at this time, as weak flow has led to a slow
burnoff. Expect this trend to continue for the afternoon hours,
with a weak surface ridge moving across the Missouri Valley. The
main concern for the afternoon hours, will be over southeast Kansas as a weak
mid level baroclinic zone will be located along the Kansas/OK border.
Best feature to focus on for a chance of isolated convection for
the afternoon hours will be a higher area of 200% above normal
precip water (pw) values over southeast Kansas for the afternoon hours, with
some unstable air across this region and a weakly capped
environment. So will keep some slight pops for areas along the Kansas/OK
border for areas east of the Kansas Turnpike for the late afternoon
hours as heating leads to a few isolated storms. Weak upper flow
and very weak shear, will mean very slow or little movement to any
storm that can develop, which will lead to a locally heavy rainfall
threat, given the high precipitable water values.

Ketcham

&&

Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 312 am CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Today-tonight:
tough forecast. Likely a tight 850mb moisture gradient across
forecast area, with mid clouds continuing to develop along/east
of I-35. Some models hint at precipitation breaking out on
northern edge of moisture return, with area vwps showing low
level boundary is moving north. Will keep small pops going along
the border and spreading north a bit this morning. In addition,
some radiational fog is possible in the west, with hybrid
upslope/build down fog in the east. Does not appear to be a
widespread or dense fog setup at this time. Expect precipitation
to wane by midday. Not seeing much to generate more precipitation
until late tonight and that is not looking that good with remnant
mid level boundary probably in northern Kansas. Have kept
precipitation going past midnight in southeast Kansas due to
consensus.

Wednesday-thursday:
Wednesday is also a tough call. Most models over the past few
nights have been consistent with decent 500mb/300mb trough moving
across the forecast area in the afternoon. Given little cap and
good instability, this seems like a good scenario for scattered
severe storms. Tonight's model runs have generally backed off on
quantitative precipitation forecast and strength of upper trough, but given prior consistency in
an otherwise inconsistent pattern, am going to keep pops going.
Despite lack of qpf, models still generating 2000-3000 cape and
little cinh by 18z. Surface boundary is not expected until
evening, but models also have various trajectories for the
early morning mesoscale convective system coming out of Nebraska, which if it encounters
the weakly capped airmass may continue to dive southeast during
the afternoon. Will keep status quo on hazardous weather outlook
given instability and hedge a bit more on timing, to account for
possibility that newer runs are correct with a mainly Wed evening/
overnight round of storms. Deeper moisture in southeast Kansas will
justify at least a slight chance for a rogue storms during peak
heating. Suspect most of rain will exit area by daybreak Thursday,
but combo of intermittent office consistency and slim possibility
that surface boundary would hang somewhere in the area, will keep
pops going for now. -Howerton

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 312 am CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Little change in overall pattern into the weekend with area being
on northern fringe of upper ridge. Given west-north west flow, will
likely see periodic rounds of storms coming off the High Plains,
with higher chances for storms in the early morning hours and the
rogue afternoon storms. By Sunday-Monday upper ridge will be
build across the plains with an uptick in temperatures and
decrease in precipitation probable. Highs on Sunday-Monday are
likely conservative and based on 1000-850mb thicknesses, at least
some triple digits seem likely in the western half of the forecast
area. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Could see some lingering MVFR cigs across central and south central
Kansas for a few more hours, as low level moisture continues to burn
off. The main concern for the afternoon hours will be across
portions of southeast Kansas where a few isolated storms may develop in and
around the kcnu taf site. So will go with a thunderstorms in the vicinity for a few hours
near kcnu.

Otherwise expect VFR conditions for the rest of the region overnight
into early Wed. Some hi-rez model solutions are hinting at some
patchy MVFR type vsbys from fog across central Kansas for early Wed
morning, but will keep this mention out for now and see how the
evening GOES.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 89 72 90 75 / 10 10 10 40
Hutchinson 89 70 91 73 / 10 10 10 50
Newton 88 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 50
Eldorado 87 71 89 73 / 10 10 10 40
Winfield-kwld 88 72 89 74 / 20 20 10 30
Russell 91 69 90 71 / 10 10 20 50
Great Bend 90 69 90 72 / 10 10 10 40
Salina 91 71 89 72 / 10 10 20 50
McPherson 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 10 50
Coffeyville 88 72 89 74 / 30 20 20 30
Chanute 88 72 90 73 / 20 20 20 30
Iola 88 71 90 73 / 10 20 20 40
Parsons-kppf 88 72 89 74 / 20 20 20 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...Ketcham
short term...pjh
long term...pjh
aviation...Ketcham

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