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afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
528 am CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 206 am CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Another pleasant weather day will be in store for the Heartland
today with surface high pressure over the area giving way to light
winds. Confidence is high that warm above normal temperatures will
prevail for this weekend into Monday. Meanwhile strong
west/southwest flow aloft across The Rockies will cause rapid Lee
cyclogenesis to develop over northeast Colorado on Monday. This will
tighten up the surface pressure gradient across Kansas with strong
south winds expected. The south winds will bring even warmer air
into the region with daytime highs on Monday possibly breaking
record values again. See fire weather section further below for
more details on grassland fire danger risk.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 206 am CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Latest GFS/European model (ecmwf) model runs show a more southern track with the
upper level wave for Tuesday night/Wednesday, and this would favor
precipitation from this system remaining in liquid form. If this
southern track remains consistent then precipitation chances would
affect mainly southern Kansas. Otherwise a cold front will slide
across the region on Thursday with cooler air spreading southward.
Long range models show the cooler air being short-lived as warmer
air quickly returns on Friday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 527 am CST Sat Nov 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A ridge of high
pressure will slide south over the plains with winds becoming light
and variable by this afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 206 am CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Strong south winds will combine with warm temperatures to create
very high grassland fire danger risk across the entire area Monday
afternoon. Outdoor burning should be avoided.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 63 36 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 63 36 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 62 37 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 62 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 63 36 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 62 36 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 62 36 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 63 37 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 62 36 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 63 33 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 62 35 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 61 35 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 61 34 66 43 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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