Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1049 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 246 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016

A diffuse frontal boundary/sfc trough axis may provide a focus for
some afternoon and early evening storms across portions of central
and south central Kansas. Better chances may arrive later tonight as
storm activity drifts eastward along and north of the 850 mb frontal
zone over southwest Kansas where low lvl moisture transport/850 mb flow of
30-35 knots is progged. A few strong storms with gusty winds will be
possible although a few pockets of locally heavy rain are also
anticipated given precipitable water values aoa 2 inches with warm
cloud depths in the 3500-4000 meter range.

Mon-Tue...the frontal zone becomes more diffuse on Monday with a
stable Post-frontal regime anticipated across much of the area.
Maintained some morning pops weighted over southeast Kansas with some
lingering showers along the veering 850 mb flow anticipated. After a
brief lull...an isolated afternoon storm or two may redevelop within
a moist/weakly capped airmass and maintained low pops mainly across
southeast Kansas but the general theme Mon-Tue is a stable Post-frontal
regime with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

Wed...as the subtropical ridge retrogrades over the central Great
Basin area toward the middle of the week, northwest mid/upper flow
will develop downstream across the central conus. This may help
steer more subtle shortwave troughs over the region and maintained
low pops on Wed/Wed night with a continuation of seasonable
temperatures.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 246 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016

The medium range model consensus continues to support
unsettled weather conditions as we move through the latter portion
of the week. Uncertainty grows as we move into the weekend as the GFS
is more aggressive building the mid/upper ridge back into the
central conus.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1043 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016

Main aviation concern will remain overnight storm chances.

Isolated showers/storms have developed generally west of I-135
over the last hour. Elevated parcels are very unstable with
minimal capping. With lack of decent forcing, tough to pin down
which sites have the best storm chances over the next few hours.
So won't get cute and will just run with thunderstorms in the vicinity at all sites with
the exception of kcnu which will have a chance of storms a few
hours later. Still feel some of the activity coming off the Front
Range will have a decent chance to make it in here, generally
after 3am. Storm chances Mon don't look as good as they do
overnight due to the front washing out and some subsidence behind
any mesoscale convective system that pushes east Mon morning.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 74 92 72 92 / 50 20 20 20
Hutchinson 73 90 71 92 / 50 20 20 20
Newton 73 90 71 91 / 50 20 20 20
Eldorado 74 90 71 90 / 40 20 20 20
Winfield-kwld 76 92 74 91 / 40 30 20 20
Russell 70 91 70 93 / 30 20 20 20
Great Bend 71 91 70 93 / 40 20 20 20
Salina 73 92 71 93 / 40 20 20 20
McPherson 72 90 70 92 / 50 20 20 20
Coffeyville 76 92 74 91 / 40 40 20 30
Chanute 74 90 73 90 / 40 40 20 20
Iola 74 90 72 90 / 40 40 20 20
Parsons-kppf 75 91 73 90 / 40 40 20 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...mwm
long term...mwm
aviation...rbl

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations