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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
333 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 331 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Forecast highlights through early next week: periodic widespread
showers/storms late this afternoon through early Thursday with
locally heavy rain likely, and possibly again this weekend into
early next week.

Areas of fog may impact locations generally west of I-135 early
this morning, and especially central Kansas. Locally dense fog is
possible.

A strong, slow-moving storm system will impact mid-America the
next few days, supporting periodic showers/thunderstorms from late
this afternoon through early Thursday. The greatest potential for
concentrated heavy rainfall rates will be this evening and
tonight, and possibly extending through Wednesday as well, when
the most favorable combination of large scale ascent, frontal
lift, warm advection, moisture transport and instability will be
present. Given the likely progressive nature of the convection,
widespread flooding appears unlikely, although the threat for
localized high water issues will be a threat, along with modest
rises in area streams/creeks/rivers. At this point though
widespread river flooding is not expected either. The severe
weather threat should remain fairly low throughout the event,
although could see a handful of strong to marginally severe storms
capable of dime- quarter size hail over mainly southern/southeast
Kansas this evening-tonight, and again Wednesday afternoon-
evening in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Widespread storm-
total rainfall amounts through early Thursday will likely be in
the 1-2" range, with locally higher amounts up to 4" probable,
depending on where the heaviest convection tracks.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 331 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Another storm system is expected to impact the region with
additional rain/storms this weekend into early next week. However,
confidence on the evolution and timing of this storm system
beyond The Four Corners region is highly uncertain given the large
spread in GFS ensemble member 500mb heights. Rain is likely, but
how much or how heavy is yet to be seen.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Aviation concerns remain low clouds and fog tonight into Tue
morning.

MVFR ceilings remain at all sites with the exception of kgbd-
krsl with these sites eventually coming down in the next couple of
hours. Moist easterly flow should continue to lower ceilings
overnight with IFR a good bet by sunrise for sites along and
especially west of I-135. Should also see some fog after 09z due
to mainly upslope processes and/or stratus build down. Also feel
the best chances will be along our western flank, affecting mainly
khut-krsl-kgbd. Fairly confident we are not looking at dense fog
but may see some vsbys lower than 3sm. At least some MVFR ceilings
should maintain through the early afternoon hours Tue, with
showers approaching our western flank by 00z.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 331 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Breezy east winds may support pockets of low-end very high
grassland fire danger across the region this afternoon. However,
suspect the limiting factor will be increasing cloud cover and
marginal afternoon humidity values in the 50s-60s percent.
Otherwise, periodic rain chances along with cooler temperatures
should support low fire danger levels the next several days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 62 53 62 44 / 30 90 80 50
Hutchinson 60 50 54 43 / 50 90 80 60
Newton 59 50 58 42 / 20 90 80 60
Eldorado 61 52 63 44 / 10 90 80 60
Winfield-kwld 66 55 67 46 / 20 90 80 50
Russell 54 46 48 39 / 70 90 80 70
Great Bend 53 47 48 40 / 70 90 80 60
Salina 58 49 51 42 / 30 90 90 70
McPherson 58 50 53 42 / 40 90 90 60
Coffeyville 68 57 70 50 / 10 90 80 60
Chanute 64 54 68 49 / 10 90 90 70
Iola 62 53 66 49 / 10 90 80 70
Parsons-kppf 67 56 70 50 / 10 90 80 70

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

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