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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Challenging forecast with regard to convective chances/trends the 
next few days. Diurnal surface heating has resulted in moderate
instability generally along and east of the turnpike again where
isolated to widely scattered convection will be possible into the
evening. Deep layer bulk shear is a bit weaker around 25 kts,
though a few strong storms will continue to be highlighted in the
hazardous weather outlook. A rather subtle shortwave aloft from
the Texas panhandle into southwest Kansas has helped initiate
convection across the high Plains southwest of the forecast area.
While mainly diurnally driven and rather weakly forced, some of
this activity could make it into parts of central Kansas and far
southern Kansas later this evening into tonight as a modest low
level jet develops and gradually veers over the area. While
geopotential heights will gradually rise across the central Plains
with weak ridging aloft on Sunday, a moist southerly surface flow
and diurnal heating will give rise to an unstable airmass for at
least mention of small PoPs again late the day, mainly across far
eastern and western parts of central Kansas. Low pressure aloft
currently over the southwest CONUS is expected to gradually shift
east though weakening as it moves across the Rockies Monday with a
remnant weak low emerging across eastern Colorado on Monday night
into Tuesday. The low level flow looks to back a bit from the
east-southeast with mid-level temperatures remaining relatively
cool and airmass remaining moist and unstable. So will keep low to
modest chance PoPs in the forecast with somewhat better chances on
Tuesday. Temperatures should continue to average just a tad below
seasonal climo with Tuesday a touch cooler with more clouds and
better precip chances.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

The aforementioned weak low pressure migrating within the mean
upper ridge may linger across Kansas during the mid-week periods
so will maintain modest chance PoPs. Little change to the going
forecast though confidence for the latter half of week is rather
low.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR conditions during this forecast period. A scattered deck of
cumulus is expected across the southern sections of the forecast
area. I have omitted VCTS at this time due to the lack of any
forcing. The moisture is in place but with no support or
convergent winds...I will keep the mention out at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  89  70  88 /  10  20  20  20 
Hutchinson      69  88  69  87 /  20  20  20  30 
Newton          69  87  69  86 /  10  20  20  30 
ElDorado        69  88  69  88 /  20  20  20  20 
Winfield-KWLD   70  89  70  89 /  10  20  20  20 
Russell         66  88  66  87 /  20  20  30  30 
Great Bend      66  88  66  87 /  20  20  30  30 
Salina          68  89  68  88 /  20  20  30  30 
McPherson       68  88  68  87 /  20  20  20  30 
Coffeyville     70  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20 
Chanute         69  89  69  89 /  20  20  20  20 
Iola            69  88  69  88 /  20  20  20  30 
Parsons-KPPF    70  90  70  90 /  20  20  20  20 

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CWH

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