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fxus63 kict 211131 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
631 am CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Short term...(today through Saturday night)
issued at 155 am CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

An upper level low is now moving off to the east this morning
allowing northerly flow to dominate the region. Cooler, more
seasonable temperatures are currently entrenched over the County Warning Area. The
cold front to the south will stall and slowly move back to the
north. Moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico will accompany the
returning warm front and will overrun the front into the mid levels
by Friday afternoon and into the evening. Mid level lapse rates and
isentropic lift will create a good environment for some elevated
thunderstorms activity. Most of this activity is expected to be to
the west and south of the County Warning Area. There is a strong enough signal to
indicate a good chance for some strong thunderstorm activity during
Friday night and early Saturday morning. This thunderstorm activity
may take the form of an mesoscale convective system with very heavy rain fall. The best
chance for the severe weather will be along the Oklahoma state line
and to the west of the County Warning Area.

The warm front will stall across southern Kansas will keep the
clouds in the region. This will keep temperatures near normal for
the remainder of the short term with chance for showers and
thunderstorms during Saturday afternoon and evening. This activity
is not expected to be severe.


Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 155 am CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

The extended range looks to become rather active as the stalled
frontal system will slowly move north for much of Sunday through
Thursday. The long range models and ensembles are all clustering
around a significant rain event for Sunday night and Monday morning.
The GFS and gefs plumes are the strongest proponents of this with
very pronounced forcing in central Kansas and to the east. Strong
moisture transport and good mid level lapse rates are also noted.
The European model (ecmwf) also indicates this setup for Sunday night and Monday but
to a lesser degree. The challenge will be timing and intensity as
the setup does not clearly indicate severe weather but does indicate
strong storms and very heavy rainfall. The presence of this front
will also keep the temperatures in check (near normal) through the
extended range. The frontal system presence will keep the rain
chances in the forecast through the extended range as well.



Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 631 am CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

VFR conditions are expected today. An upper low over northwest Kansas will drop
south into ern Kansas and southeast Kansas by the afternoon hours. As it moves
south, expecting increasing cloud cover at around 5000 feet above ground level for
most of ern Kansas. Cyclonic rotation around the low and steep mid level
lapse rates may lead to scattered showers to develop and move into
southeast Kansas for the afternoon hours, so will go with a vcsh for the kcnu
taf. Very little instability is available as the low moves south, so
will not go with a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention, but could see it added with later
forecasts if better instability develops.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 86 61 87 66 / 0 0 10 70
Hutchinson 84 60 86 63 / 0 0 10 60
Newton 83 60 85 64 / 0 0 10 70
Eldorado 83 60 84 64 / 0 0 0 70
Winfield-kwld 87 61 87 65 / 0 0 10 70
Russell 82 57 85 62 / 0 0 10 60
Great Bend 83 57 85 62 / 0 0 10 60
Salina 81 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 50
McPherson 82 59 85 63 / 0 0 10 60
Coffeyville 85 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 70
Chanute 81 63 83 65 / 10 10 0 60
Iola 79 63 82 64 / 20 10 0 60
Parsons-kppf 83 63 85 66 / 10 0 0 70


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


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