Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kict 252352 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
652 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 225 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017

Continued isentropic upglide/weak 700 mb waa along the mid level
baroclinic zone may keep some showers and isolated storms going
periodically through the night and into the day on Mon and
maintained 20-40 pops across much of the area. Showers and isolated
storms may increase in coverage late Mon afternoon/evening across
portions of central Kansas dropping southward into south central and
southeast Kansas during the evening/overnight hours.

Tuesday-Wednesday...the mid/upper ridge is progged to translate
eastward across the Central Plains with breezy south winds and a
return to more seasonable temperatures on Tue. Any lingering
showers/storms should be weighted early in the period with mostly
dry conditions anticipated by afternoon. An approaching shortwave
trough will bring increasing chances for deep moist convection
to the Central High plains by late afternoon/early evening. This
activity will drift eastward into central Kansas late Tue night. A
trailing/diffuse frontal boundary could provide a focus for
additional shower and thunderstorm development Wed afternoon and
Wed night. Highs are expected to return to the upper 80s to mid
90s with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 225 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017

Storm chances will continue through much of the period with a
continuation of warm and humid conditions. A progressive zonal
flow regime is anticipated at the beginning of the period while
the Central Plains region comes under increasing influence from a
mid/upper ridge towards the end of the period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 652 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017

Sct rain showers that are moving east-southeast ~25kts across central & far south-
central Kansas will cause periods of MVFR cigs & vsbys this evening.
The greatest potential for MVFR cigs & vsbys would occur across
all 3 central Kansas terminals til ~02z. All areas to be predominantly
VFR thereafter although there are hints that "low-end" MVFR stratus
may develop in a few areas around daybreak.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 63 84 63 87 / 30 20 30 10
Hutchinson 61 83 62 87 / 30 20 30 10
Newton 61 81 61 85 / 30 20 30 10
Eldorado 62 81 62 84 / 30 20 30 10
Winfield-kwld 64 84 64 87 / 30 10 30 10
Russell 57 82 61 88 / 40 30 20 10
Great Bend 59 83 62 88 / 30 30 30 10
Salina 60 82 61 88 / 40 30 30 10
McPherson 59 82 61 86 / 30 30 30 10
Coffeyville 63 83 62 85 / 20 20 30 10
Chanute 62 80 60 84 / 30 20 30 10
Iola 61 79 59 83 / 30 30 30 0
Parsons-kppf 63 81 62 85 / 20 20 30 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations