Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kict 230058
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
758 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
issued at 755 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Updated to tweak pops down a bit for tonight.
Confidence is decreasing on how much activity we will see along
the front in our forecast area. Feel that the development of
storms out west were aided by upslope processes, given they
developed even with decent capping. Feel our best chance for
storms tonight will be if this activity can make it into the
western fringes of our forecast area. Given how the storms out
near kddc are behaving, confidence is low if they will be able to
hold together as they track east.
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Low level moisture and an unstable airmass will again
be located across northern Kansas and srn Nebraska this afternoon. To
the south of the moisture a warm elevated mixed layer remains across
much of central Kansas. Expect a vigorous cold front currently located
across central Nebraska to continue to push south late this
afternoon into this evening. With the strong cap in place south of
the front, think shower and thunderstorm chances in central Kansas will
be delayed until convergence associated with the cold front pushes
into central Kansas after 00z and possibly as late as 02z.
As the front pushes in, convergence and mid level lift is expected
to lead to a more widespread showers/thunderstorm chance for late
this evening, as the front makes steady progress south across
central Kansas into south central Kansas. Could see a little more widespread
strong/severe weather chance for late this evening, as the GFS shows
higher bulk shear values around 40 kts and MLCAPE values of 1500-
Could see some the showers and thunderstorms linger well into Fri
morning, as the front pushes into south central and southeast Kansas.
Will also have to keep an eye on remnant moisture from ts Cindy
lifting north, possibly into southeast Kansas late tonight. Increased moisture
and instability may lead to more efficient showers and storms in southeast
Fri-Fri night: a little more uncertainty on how the rest of Fri will
play out, but think the cold front will push into OK during the
morning hours on Fri. Models suggest Post frontal showers will
linger across most of srn Kansas for a good portion of the day on Fri as
the mid level baroclinic zone lingers across the area. Canadian high
pressure will begin to build into the plains, as the front pushes
south, so expect a cloudy cool day for Fri.
Sat-Mon: cooler drier air looks to push into the area for the
weekend, with the cold front pushing well south of the area. If the
European model (ecmwf) plays out, the cold front may push all the way into the Gulf
Coast states. Canadian high pressure looks to build into the plains,
with cooler and drier air pushing south across the forecast area.
This will lead to min temps dropping into the middle 50s with Max
temps on sun in the upper 70s. Some uncertainty on how Sat and sun
will play out, as the both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) both suggest some mid
level moisture will try to sneak back into wrn KS, which may lead to
a chance for off-and-on morning showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms by late Sat or early sun. Could even see some storms
come off the High Plains in the upslope flow regime. Consensus pops
seem a little overdone, as mid level moisture return may not be as
fast as the models suggest.
Long term...(tuesday through thursday)
issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
The warming trend and south winds will return by Tuesday, as the
broad Great Lakes trough starts moving east. High temperatures by
Wed-Thu should be in the upper 80s to 90s most areas, along with
increasing dewpoints/humidity and Stout/gusty south winds.
Additionally, the overall pattern advertised by the medium range
model consensus should support periodic thunderstorm chances
somewhere across the region Tuesday evening through at least
Friday night, mainly during the evening- nighttime hours. Exact
placement and timing of these various thunderstorm chances remains
highly uncertain this far out.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
Aviation concern will be shower/storm chances tonight.
Strong cold front currently stretches from southeast Nebraska to
north of krsl and to near kgck, and is continuing to slowly push
south. Very warm mid level temps are keeping convection from
developing over north central Kansas while a few storms developed over
western KS, possibly aided by upslope processes. So confidence is
very low with storms affecting our forecast area this evening
along the front. The more likely scenario might be for some iso-
sct shower/storm activity behind the front as some mid level warm
advection persists. Should see ceilings lower behind the front as
cooler air filters-in, but confidence is high we are not looking
at IFR conditions.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 70 83 59 83 / 20 30 10 0
Hutchinson 68 81 57 82 / 30 30 0 0
Newton 68 81 58 81 / 30 30 0 0
Eldorado 68 81 57 81 / 20 30 0 0
Winfield-kwld 70 83 59 82 / 20 30 10 0
Russell 64 80 55 81 / 40 30 0 10
Great Bend 65 80 56 81 / 30 40 0 10
Salina 67 82 57 83 / 30 30 0 10
McPherson 67 81 56 82 / 30 30 0 0
Coffeyville 70 84 58 82 / 10 30 10 0
Chanute 70 82 57 81 / 20 30 0 0
Iola 70 82 57 81 / 30 30 0 0
Parsons-kppf 71 83 59 82 / 20 30 0 0