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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
710 am CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Short term...(today through Saturday night)
issued at 331 am CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Today-tonight:
models continue to struggle in the short term but maintain
chances for robust convection late afternoon/evening. Through mid
morning, anticipate ongoing storms just clipping central Kansas will
continue to flirt with western edge of forecast area. With little
change in airmass east of I-35, will maintain small chances for
storms through mid morning similar the past few days. Question
becomes when storms will arrive and/or develop in central Kansas. GFS
is as usual drier in boundary layer with considerable more cinh
and less cape than NAM. Setup appears reasonable favorable for mesoscale convective system
to track across at least western half of forecast area, with the
main positive factor being stronger than normal winds aloft/shear
for this time of year. Instability is more than sufficient for
severe, but appears low for typical derecho events and the low
level moisture distribution is not ideal. Orientation of middle
level winds however will be favorable for good momentum Transfer.

Friday-saturday:
precipitation may linger a bit on Friday morning, but unclear how
quickly clouds will exit and airmass recover. Expecting mainly dry
conditions during the day Friday but with fairly extensive clouds.
This combined with cooler air behind front will result in much
cooler highs. Models suggest another round of storms developing
late Friday night in moisture return, but location/timing is
suspect. Precipitation should wane Saturday morning with
temperatures recovering, but a few rogue storms will be possible
in the afternoon. Increasing baroclinicity will favor more
nocturnal storms Saturday night, but once again timing/track is
uncertain. -Howerton

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 331 am CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Precipitation from mesoscale convective system will dribble into Sunday morning. Very
small chance that some afternoon storms will develop in deeper
moisture in southeast Kansas Sunday afternoon. Otherwise dry
conditions are probable for remainder of the period. However
consensus did require some small chances for storms in far
northwest sections Tuesday night/Wednesday. Temperatures will
increase with upper ridge building this period. Temperatures on
Tuesday/Wednesday likely a bit cool unless extensive dense cirrus
develops. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 710 am CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

A few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms expected through mid-
morning over portions of south-central and southeast KS, but vast
majority of locations will remain dry. Otherwise, thunderstorm
chances will increase from the northwest this afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds
and large hail, along with locally heavy rain. If current activity
over western Nebraska holds together, storms may move in from the
northwest sooner than expected, possibly as early as midday for
Russell, and mid-afternoon for Wichita. Will continue to monitor.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 92 70 84 70 / 20 70 30 30
Hutchinson 92 69 83 69 / 20 70 30 30
Newton 90 69 81 68 / 20 60 30 30
Eldorado 91 70 82 70 / 20 60 30 30
Winfield-kwld 93 72 85 71 / 20 60 30 30
Russell 90 66 81 66 / 40 60 30 30
Great Bend 92 67 82 67 / 30 70 30 30
Salina 92 69 83 68 / 20 60 30 30
McPherson 91 68 82 68 / 20 60 30 30
Coffeyville 93 72 85 71 / 20 40 30 30
Chanute 91 71 83 70 / 20 40 40 30
Iola 90 70 82 70 / 20 40 40 30
Parsons-kppf 92 71 85 71 / 20 40 40 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

Short term...pjh
long term...pjh
aviation...adk

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