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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
319 am CST sun Dec 4 2016

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 314 am CST sun Dec 4 2016

Today-monday:
clouds/precipitation should continue to end from west-east
throughout the morning. Expect precipitation to be east of the
area by noon. Expecting decent recovery today in absence of high
level clouds, with weak downslope flow and insolation offset by wet
ground and low sun angle. Hedged just a bit warmer in west where
effects of insolation will be longest. Tonight is a challenge
with wet ground keeping dew points up and return flow developing.
Hourly temperatures likely a challenge with marginal mixing
keeping temperatures fluctuating throughout the night, but net
result was to hedge a bit warmer in the west. One more warm day
anticipated on Monday with a decent breeze from the south.
Compact southern stream system may clip a small part of southeast
Kansas with light rain in the afternoon.

Monday night-tuesday:
precipitation chances/coverage ramp up a bit in southeast Kansas in
the evening as system moves closer to that area. Otherwise cold
air still on track to blast through the area later Monday night
and early on Tuesday. Cold air advection will be slightly offset
by insolation, but brisk north winds will make it feel even
colder. -Howerton

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 314 am CST sun Dec 4 2016

Models have become pretty consistent with snow developing towards
daybreak Wednesday as a fast moving shortwave interacts with
baroclinic zone. Considerable differences between GFS/NAM soundings
for Wednesday morning. However both suggest, albeit via slightly
different means, potential for brief period of efficient snow
production. This would support a few inches of snow over parts of
central and south central Kansas Wednesday morning. Below freezing
temperatures will linger through Thursday before the warmup
commences on Friday and Saturday. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Poor aviation conditions will continue across much of the region
tonight with low cigs/visibilities due to very moist low levels
and areas of light rain/drizzle. Will see conditions gradually
improve from west to east across the region for Sunday morning as
winds switch to the west/northwest. This will clear out the low
clouds as drier air pushes into the region.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 52 31 53 30 / 20 0 0 10
Hutchinson 52 29 53 27 / 10 0 0 10
Newton 50 32 52 27 / 20 0 0 10
Eldorado 51 31 52 30 / 30 0 10 10
Winfield-kwld 52 31 53 31 / 40 0 10 10
Russell 51 29 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 51 29 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 50 30 54 25 / 10 0 0 10
McPherson 50 29 52 26 / 10 0 0 10
Coffeyville 54 31 53 35 / 80 0 20 40
Chanute 51 30 53 32 / 80 0 10 20
Iola 50 30 52 32 / 80 0 10 20
Parsons-kppf 51 30 52 34 / 80 0 10 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...pjh
long term...pjh
aviation...cdj

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