Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kict 121100
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
500 am CST Tue Dec 12 2017
Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 255 am CST Tue Dec 12 2017
a mid-upper deck longwave trough, deeper than the marianas trench,
is situated from the Great Lakes all the way to about Mississippi,
while an ultra-high amplitude upper-Deck Ridge covers western
North America from Baja California all the way to the British Columbia/
Alberta border. Both continue to keep the Great Plains under a
strong due north mid-upper regime. Such a pattern will force a
fairly strong surface high centered over the Nebraska Panhandle
straight south today with the high centered over West Texas this
evening. The track of the surface high will induce northwest winds to
back toward the west as today progresses. With colder air
filtering in from western KS, it still won't be nearly as warm as
yesterday, especially in southeast Kansas.
Tonight & Wed:
the next sharp but compact mid-upper shortwave will sprint S/southeast
from Saskatchewan & should reach the mid Mississippi Valley Wed
evening. The shortwave will kick a surface trough rapidly southeast
across the County Warning Area Wed morning. Airmass in wake of trough passage
becomes dry adiabatic early Wed afternoon & with excellent
momentum Transfer windy & warmer weather results for all areas.
While the grassland fire danger would increase, the indices are
not high enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch for central or
south-central Kansas Wed afternoon.
Wed night-Thu night:
the next clipper will sail quickly S/southeast from Saskatchewan &
Manitoba late Wed night & strengthen considerably as it crosses
the immediate Kansas neighborhood Thu & Thu night. Greatest moisture
flux targets areas just NE of our County Warning Area & as such kept dry forecast
Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 2 am CST Tue Dec 12 2017
The strong upper-Deck Ridge that has covered western North America
will deamplify rapidly as it gets forced east across the Great
Plains by the next shortwave Fri & Fri night. The positively-
tilted upper wave crossing the western U.S. Will deepen rapidly as
it crosses the northern plains Sat & Sat night. The strengthening
wave should extend from southern Hudson Bay to around New Mexico
on sun. The mid-upper wave will kick a weak cold front southeast across
Kansas Sat night. Since the front is fairly weak, temperatures won't
cool that much from Sat to sun with sun's highs in the lower 50s.
Mon will be warmer as lower-deck flow backs toward the west which
would enable highs to reach back into the mid 50s.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 500 am CST Tue Dec 12 2017
VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Surface high pressure ridge will migrate east across central
Kansas this morning and over southeast Kansas by early afternoon.
Winds will back from the northwest to southwest during the day
and remain relatively light. A surface trof will move into central
Kansas late tonight with winds shifting to northwest and becoming
gusty toward the end of the valid period at krsl. Except for some
scattered stratocu this morning across parts of central and eastern
Kansas, generally clear today and tonight.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 53 32 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 53 31 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 51 31 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 50 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 51 31 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 56 31 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 56 31 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 53 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 52 29 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 48 30 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 46 30 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 46 30 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 47 30 61 31 / 0 0 0 0