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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
333 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 327 am CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Today:
based on current and yesterday trends, and decent MUCAPES, suspect
storms/precipitation just west of forecast area continue will
track east across area this morning, with precipitation on the
wane by mid-late morning. Given weak forcing, not anticipating
much if any coverage this afternoon and early eve. Could see an
uptick after 0000 UTC, but more likely will be later tonight per
recent trends/climatology.

Tuesday-wednesday:
given little change in overall pattern, will be stuck with low
pops and roughly persistence temperatures on Tuesday. Models do
have fairly good agreement with 500mb trough passage during the
day on Wednesday, which should support a better chance of storms
during the day, with chances waning Wednesday night. -Howerton

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 327 am CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Thursday-sunday:
little change in overall pattern with area in persistent west-northwest.
Given pattern, will likely see periodic rounds of storms coming
off the High Plains, with higher chances for storms in the early
morning hours...and rogue afternoon storms. Will have chances of
rain all periods, but anticipate best chances in the 08-15z time
frame, with secondary peak in the late afternoon/early evening
hours. Most areas will be dry for most of the time. Temperatures
should be seasonal, but will be highly and locally dependent on
precipitation/clouds. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1043 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016

Main aviation concern will remain overnight storm chances.

Isolated showers/storms have developed generally west of I-135
over the last hour. Elevated parcels are very unstable with
minimal capping. With lack of decent forcing, tough to pin down
which sites have the best storm chances over the next few hours.
So won't get cute and will just run with thunderstorms in the vicinity at all sites with
the exception of kcnu which will have a chance of storms a few
hours later. Still feel some of the activity coming off the Front
Range will have a decent chance to make it in here, generally
after 3am. Storm chances Mon don't look as good as they do
overnight due to the front washing out and some subsidence behind
any mesoscale convective system that pushes east Mon morning.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 91 72 93 73 / 60 20 20 20
Hutchinson 90 71 92 72 / 50 20 20 20
Newton 89 71 91 72 / 60 20 20 20
Eldorado 90 72 91 73 / 60 20 20 20
Winfield-kwld 92 73 92 73 / 60 20 20 20
Russell 90 70 93 71 / 30 10 20 20
Great Bend 91 70 93 71 / 50 20 20 20
Salina 93 72 95 74 / 40 20 20 20
McPherson 89 70 91 71 / 50 20 20 20
Coffeyville 91 73 92 73 / 50 30 20 10
Chanute 89 72 91 73 / 50 20 20 10
Iola 89 72 91 73 / 50 20 20 10
Parsons-kppf 90 73 91 73 / 50 30 20 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...pjh
long term...pjh
aviation...rbl

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