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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1252 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 305 am CDT sun Jul 24 2016

Forecast highlights: one more day of above normal temperatures
today, with periodic thunderstorm chances today through the
upcoming week.

A cold frontal zone shifting slowly south in conjunction with
weak/subtle upper disturbances approaching from the west will be
the focus for hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms today-tonight
across the region. Activity will be primarily northwest of the Kansas
Turnpike today, with these chances expanding/propagating southeast
a bit more tonight. While a few strong/severe storms cannot be
ruled out this afternoon/evening given strong heating and modest
instability, weak flow aloft should preclude widespread severe
weather. Main threats will be locally strong wind gusts and heavy
downpours. Frontal zone washes out/dissipates Monday, although the
possible presence of various outflow boundaries and/or
convectively-induced upper disturbances may allow for continued
hit-or-miss showers/storms Monday through Tuesday.

Otherwise, another day of 105+ heat indices today over mainly
southern/southeast Kansas. Will continue the excessive heat warning.
Decreasing atmospheric thickness and the potential for
precipitation and more clouds than sun will allow for a return to
seasonable temperatures in the low 90s by Monday.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 305 am CDT sun Jul 24 2016

Medium range model consensus suggests the unsettled weather
pattern will continue mid to late week and possibly into the
weekend, as the upper ridge continues to retrograde over the
western conus, allowing stronger northwest flow aloft and an associated
wobbly baroclinic zone to settle over mid-America. Actually
thinking the mid-late week period will be more conducive for
storms than the period from today-Tuesday night. The stronger flow
aloft along with modest to strong instability should allow for a
handful of strong/severe storms, along with locally heavy rain,
mainly during the afternoon, evening and nighttime periods.
Seasonable temperatures should continue this period given the
decreased atmospheric thickness and potential for precipitation
and more clouds than sun.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1242 PM CDT sun Jul 24 2016

A frontal zone extending from northeast Kansas to central and
southwest Kansas early this afternoon, will be slow to push southward
and may be along the Kansas/OK border by late Monday morning. Isolated
storms may develop along the front late this PM into early this
eve with strong heating and weak convergence. Other storms are
expected to develop over the High Plains in upslope flow late
this PM/eve, and propagate eastward overnight while congealing
into clusters as they encounter Richer moisture/instability. Best
chances for storms appears to be at hut, ict and cnu terminals
late tonight into Monday morning, with lesser chances near I-70 in
central Kansas. Southerly flow will become light northeasterly behind
the front as it sinks slowly south.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 101 74 92 73 / 30 40 30 30
Hutchinson 99 73 90 72 / 40 40 20 30
Newton 98 73 90 72 / 30 40 30 30
Eldorado 99 74 90 72 / 20 40 30 30
Winfield-kwld 101 75 92 74 / 20 30 30 30
Russell 94 70 90 70 / 30 30 20 20
Great Bend 97 71 91 71 / 30 30 20 20
Salina 97 73 92 72 / 30 30 20 20
McPherson 97 72 90 71 / 40 40 20 20
Coffeyville 99 75 92 74 / 10 30 30 30
Chanute 98 74 90 73 / 20 30 30 30
Iola 98 74 90 72 / 20 30 30 30
Parsons-kppf 98 75 91 73 / 20 30 30 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ksz049-
051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

Short term...adk
long term...adk
aviation...jmc

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