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fxus63 kict 222318 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
518 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 251 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main forecast challenge will be temperatures, with dry weather
persisting through the period.

Light south/southwest winds, mostly clear skies, and dry air should
yield low temperatures tonight near normals, around 30 to the middle
30s.

Shortwave energy over the northeastern Pacific is progged to move
eastward across the northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley
late Thursday into Friday. This will result in Lee trough
development, southwesterly winds, and warming 1000-850 mb
thicknesses especially on Friday. Much above normal temperatures are
expected Thursday and Friday, with near record or record highs
likely Friday.

In association with the aforementioned shortwave energy to the
north, a Pacific cold front will push southward through the forecast
area Friday night. Some cooler air will result for Friday night into
Saturday, however, temperatures will remain above normal given the
Pacific airmass.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 251 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Medium range models were in reasonable agreement Sunday into Monday,
then divergences in the upper pattern progression/evolution occur
Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to increased forecast uncertainty.

Upper ridging over the western states is progged to flatten, as it
spreads east across the southern/Central Plains Sunday into Monday.
Resultant Lee troughing and south-southwesterly winds will allow for
temperatures to climb much above normal by Monday, possibly to near
record warmth levels once again given progged 1000-850 thicknesses
and persistent dry conditions across the region. The European model (ecmwf) was
slower and deeper with an upper trough moving from the eastern
Pacific, across the central Continental U.S. Early-mid next week, and was a
deviation from its ensemble mean. The gefs also showed increased
spread with the handling/timing of this upper trough. A blended
approach will bring some cooler, more seasonal air into the forecast
area by mid week, with dry weather persisting.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 511 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

With mostly clear skies and relatively light winds expected, aviation
concerns over the next 24 hours will remain minimal. Confidence
is high that VFR conditions will persist throughout this taf
period and beyond. Winds out of the south/southwest will slowly
weaken tonight and into tomorrow, and are expected to shift from
southwesterly to northwesterly. By late tomorrow afternoon, winds
will once again shift back to southwesterly, though they are
forecast to remain fairly light. Skies should remain mostly clear
with just a few sporadic high clouds possible throughout the next
day or so.

&&

Climate...
issued at 252 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Record highs on Nov 23...
cnu80 in 1897
ict 72 in 2005
rsl 72 in 2005
sln 73 in 2005

Record highs on Nov 24...
cnu 74 in 1919
ict 70 in 1915
rsl 75 in 1990
sln 75 in 1990

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 33 68 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 35 68 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 34 67 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 32 66 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 32 67 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 36 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 37 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 36 68 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 35 68 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 31 63 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 30 62 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 30 62 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 30 62 41 70 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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