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fxus63 kict 240611 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1211 am CST Fri Feb 24 2017

issued at 1210 am CST Fri Feb 24 2017

There are 2 reasons for this latest update:
1) to remove all mention of showers & thunderstorms from southeast
Kansas as this activity has obviously vacated the premises.
2) decrease winds (slightly) in most areas.

The strong cold front that surged southeast across kict country this eve
has pushed all the way into west TX, the western Red River & into
south-central OK at mid-night. The cold front is about to exit
southeast Kansas. Temps are responding as expected with the northwest sector
of the immediate neighborhood now in the mid 30s with most of
south-central Kansas plunging to around 40. In southeast KS, where the
cold front is pushing thru at mid-night, a razor-sharp gradient
exists. Temps at kcfv & kidp were still around 70 while Eureka has
plunged to 45. The current temp forecast has these trends depicted
quite well. The showers & thunderstorms that affected parts of
southeast Kansas this eve have sprinted NE into wrn MO along the afore-
mentioned cold front. Remainder of forecast is unchanged.

Update issued at 900 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A broad SW-NE oriented instability axis nearly juxtaposed with a
strong southeast-movg cold front has been sufficient to 'spark' a few
thunderstorms in southeast Kansas late this evening. Meanwhile the
south/southwest edge of thunderstorms continues to clip primarily
Lincoln County near an axis of elevated instability. The thunder-
storms should be neither strong nor severe. The gusty nly 25-35
mph winds that continue to occur are not thunderstorm-induced. All
products have been updated. There'll be more updates in the couple


Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 133 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A vigorous trough over The Rockies will emerge over the Central
Plains of Nebraska tonight. Strong forcing for ascent will spread
downstream across Kansas where a few strong to severe storms may
develop across portions of central Kansas early this evening as an area
of low pressure translates northeast across the area. A cold front
will follow, spreading south and east across the forecast area
tonight with breezy northwest winds in it's wake. Low level cold air
advection and widespread stratocumulus will keep temperatures
below normal on Friday with some locations across central Kansas
struggling to climb out of the 30s while locations near the OK
state line see afternoon highs near 50. area of high pressure at the sfc is progged to sprawl
across the southern and Central Plains states on Sat with slowly
moderating temperatures and light winds. Highs are expected to top
out in the upper 40s for most locations. Southerly winds will return
on Sunday ahead of another progressive shortwave trough moving into
The Rockies. This will allow temperatures to rise into the 50s or
near normal for late Feb. Maintained low pops ahead of this
progressive storm system. We may see a brief mix as colder air
filters into the area Sunday night before precipitation ends from
west to east.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 133 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A progressive mid/upper flow will bring a series of shortwave
troughs over the region through early next week with multiple
frontal passages/wind shifts. Tuesday may be the warmest day of the
week with highs in the 60s. More seasonable air is anticipated as we
move through the remainder of the week with highs mostly in the 50s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1210 am CST Fri Feb 24 2017

There are 2 concerns:
1) MVFR cigs that in a few instances will brush IFR levels.
2) northwest winds that are sustaqined 17-22kts W/ 30-35kt gusts.

All terminals wl rmn in MVFR cig status thru late Fri mrng when
cigs acrs all of cntrl & SC Kansas should reach ~3,500ft. Northwest winds wl
dmnsh somewhat twd 12z but quickly incr to ~22kts sustained W/
~30kt gusts. Such velocities wl persist thrut the day but should
dmnsh early Fri eve.


Fire weather...
issued at 133 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Breezy northwest winds will arrive across the area on Friday in
the wake of a cold front but minimum relative humidities will
remain above 40 percent keeping the fire danger in the high to
very high range on Friday afternoon.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 37 44 23 46 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 35 41 22 46 / 10 10 0 0
Newton 36 40 22 45 / 10 10 0 0
Eldorado 37 43 23 45 / 10 10 0 0
Winfield-kwld 38 47 23 47 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 31 35 18 45 / 20 20 0 0
Great Bend 32 37 18 45 / 10 10 0 0
Salina 34 38 21 46 / 20 20 10 0
McPherson 35 40 21 45 / 10 10 0 0
Coffeyville 44 51 25 47 / 20 0 0 0
Chanute 42 47 24 46 / 30 10 0 0
Iola 42 47 24 46 / 30 10 10 0
Parsons-kppf 43 49 24 47 / 30 0 0 0


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...



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