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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
633 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A shortwave trough moving eastward across southern Saskatchewan
early this afternoon will help drive a cold front south into the
Central High plains this evening and tonight. This front will
provide a focus for deep moist convection over northwest Kansas but due
to weak mid and upper flow much of the activity may struggle making
eastward progress into our forecast area. Maintained low pops across
portions of central Kansas although higher probabilities should remain
north and west of the forecast area.

Convective debris may linger into the morning hours on Sunday across
much of the area limiting insolation and impacting high
temperatures. This lowers confidence in meeting our heat criteria
but some moisture pooling along the sagging front may help drive
heat indices over the century mark. The NAM/GFS differ in where the
slow moving front will set up on Sunday and generally leaned toward
the more southern NAM solution. The front will become a focus for
deep moist convection after 20z on sun but initiation could be a bit
faster as convective inhibition if progged to remain relatively
weak. Storms developing along the front Sunday will likely linger
into the evening/overnight hours with some outflow interactions but
there remains little support for upscale growth Sunday night.

Mon-Tue...the diffuse frontal boundary/residual outflow
boundaries may serve as a focus for additional storm development
on Monday and maintained low pops as confidence remains fairly low
at this time. As the mid/upper ridge continues to
retrograde...decreasing thickness and an easterly component to the
low lvl wind should result in more seasonable highs in the low/mid
90s. The airmass is progged to remain weakly capped into Tuesday
with some diurnally driven storms remaining possible across the
area.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The subtropical ridge is progged to set up over the southwest
resulting in northwest mid/upper flow across the Central Plains states.
This will bring multiple opportunities for precipitation through
the period and seasonably mild temperatures across the area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Main aviation concern over the next 24 hours will be storm chances
late Sun afternoon.

Surface trough has slowly slipped into NW Kansas and currently extends
from south central Nebraska to north of Garden City. Storms are
trying to develop along this feature over western Kansas with the bulk
of this activity expected to stay west of the forecast area. Weak
cold front will continue to track south on sun and will push into
central Kansas by the late afternoon hours. Storms are expected to try
and develop along this front. With an uncapped environment, the
main question will be whether there is enough convergence along
this front to develop storms. At this point confidence is too low
to insert storms into tafs, but may insert some with 06z tafs if
00z model runs continue to hint at this.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 75 101 75 94 / 10 20 40 20
Hutchinson 75 100 73 92 / 10 30 30 20
Newton 76 99 74 92 / 10 20 30 20
Eldorado 75 99 75 92 / 10 20 40 20
Winfield-kwld 75 101 76 95 / 0 10 20 20
Russell 73 96 70 92 / 20 30 20 20
Great Bend 74 98 71 95 / 10 30 20 20
Salina 77 98 74 93 / 20 30 20 20
McPherson 74 98 73 91 / 10 30 20 20
Coffeyville 75 100 75 96 / 0 10 20 20
Chanute 75 99 75 94 / 0 10 20 20
Iola 75 98 74 92 / 0 10 30 20
Parsons-kppf 75 99 75 95 / 0 10 20 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ksz049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ksz032-
033-047-048-050.

&&

$$

Short term...mwm
long term...mwm
aviation...rbl

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