Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kict 201034
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
534 am CDT sun Aug 20 2017
Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 355 am CDT sun Aug 20 2017
heat advisory in effect for all of southeast Kansas as well as south-
central Kansas from 1-7 PM CDT today.
an isolated thunderstorm that is producing torrential rains has
set up Camp over Wilson & northern Montgomery counties. The cell
developed in a well-defined of high octane Theta-east air (850-mb
dewpoints ~17c). With a strong & massive 700-mb high centered over
the arklatex this cell will move very little thru daybreak. Its
outflow boundaries are likely to throw knuckleballs at convective
trends for the rest of the day. With confidence lacking on exact
location(s) of afternoon convection have generally "spray-painted"
15-20% across primarily southeast Kansas where slightly greater
moisture remains entrenched. Any thunderstorms that develop this
afternoon are also likely to produce locally very heavy rains. As
such, further flooding, albeit localized, will need to be watched
closely. With such an unstable airmass thunderstorms that develop
will once again approach severity. With such a hot, humid airmass
entrenched across all of south-central & southeast Kansas heat indices
around 105 are likely. As such another heat advisory has been
issued from 1-7 PM CDT.
with little change in the overall pattern scattered thunderstorms
are possible although the slightly greater chances would be across
central Kansas where no doubt closer to the projected track of the
next mesoscale convective system.
an increasing thunderstorm potential is still anticipated as mid
to upper-deck trof strengthens as it surges southeast from the northern
plains toward, then across, the Great Lakes. The trof will send a
cold front southeast into central Kansas late Mon afternoon/early Mon evening
with the front possibly reaching the Turnpike early Tue morning.
It still appears the mid-upper wave will provide enough of a kick
to send the front across the Kansas/OK border late Tue night.
Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 355 am CDT sun Aug 20 2017
cooler weather will spread across Kansas as high pressure spreads southeast
from the northern plains to the Great Lakes. A much drier airmass
would keep any chance of thunderstorms in check.
Sat & Sat night:
an intense cyclone that'll move slowly east across the Alberta/
Saskatchewan border will send a weak shortwave slowly east into
western Kansas. Thunderstorms should develop over the Western Plains &
may spread into central Kansas on Sat. Stay tuned.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 530 am CDT sun Aug 20 2017
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Scattered mid-level echoes over north-central/northeastern Kansas
may result in a brief light shower at the sln terminal early this
morning. Otherwise, a Lee trough will allow southerly winds to
increase by midday through this afternoon, with some gusts of
20-25 knots in central/south-central Kansas. Cannot rule out
isolated strong storms today into tonight over eastern Kansas
given the instability, but confidence is not high enough for a
thunderstorms in the vicinity in the terminals.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 98 75 94 71 / 10 20 20 50
Hutchinson 98 75 93 69 / 10 20 20 60
Newton 97 74 92 69 / 10 30 20 60
Eldorado 97 74 92 70 / 10 30 20 60
Winfield-kwld 98 75 94 72 / 10 30 20 30
Russell 99 74 92 67 / 10 20 40 60
Great Bend 98 73 92 67 / 10 20 30 60
Salina 99 76 94 69 / 20 20 40 60
McPherson 97 75 93 69 / 10 20 30 60
Coffeyville 95 74 92 73 / 30 30 20 30
Chanute 95 74 91 72 / 30 30 30 60
Iola 94 74 91 71 / 30 30 30 60
Parsons-kppf 95 74 92 73 / 30 30 20 40
heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening