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fxus63 kict 221714 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1114 am CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Short term...(today through Friday night)
issued at 309 am CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Zonal progressive flow will lead to another well above normal
temp day today, as west-SW flow leads to good downslope conditions.
This will lead to Max temps almost 20-25 degrees above normal with
very dry conditions expected. (See fire weather section below)
could even see some temps come close to record numbers for
portions of central Kansas this afternoon.

A shortwave moving across the northern plains later today will
help push a cold front into portions of north central Kansas by this
evening. This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu for
portions of central KS, with temps south of the stalled frontal
boundary remaining well above normal.

Models continue to show a shortwave is expected to come out of
The Rockies for Thu, with a low pressure area developing over Kansas
for Thu afternoon. Models continue to trend a little further north
on the path of this low pressure area, with current trend taking
across the northern half of Kansas. Models show the stalled frontal
boundary in central Kansas pushing gradually back into neb as a warm
front on Thu. Both solutions suggest that most of the precip with
this system will remain along the Kansas/neb border or north of the

As the shortwave pushes east on Fri, colder air on the backside
of this system, is expected to plunge south across most of the
forecast area for Fri/Sat, with more seasonal type temps values in
the middle 40s for highs and middle 20s for lows.


Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 309 am CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Latest medium range model solutions suggest ridging will build
across the region for the weekend. This will lead to a gradual
warming trend by the end of the weekend.

Zonal flow for the beginning of the week will lead to the warming
trend continuing for Mon/Tue. Consensus forecast suggests that
the warm advection associated with the warming trend may lead to a
chance of showers and isolated storms across southern Kansas for late
sun through Mon.

Another shortwave is progged to move into The Rockies toward the
end of the forecast period. This system may bring increasing
chances for precipitation and another surge of cooler air as we
head towards the middle of the week.



Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1111 am CST Wed Feb 22 2017

VFR will prevail through much of the period with breezy westerly
winds becoming light and variable tonight. As a shortwave trough
approaches from the west on Thu, low level moisture will return
northward across the area. A few sprinkles may develop with the
best chances for MVFR cigs remaining over southeast Kansas after 15z
on Thu.


Fire weather...
issued at 309 am CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Good downslope flow from the west and northwest will lead to very
dry conditions and well above normal temps today. Relative
humidity levels may fall into the upper teens both days across
central KS, which will lead to an elevated fire danger, with high
grassland fire danger values expected.

A cold frontal boundary will drop south across the area on Fri,
which will lead to drier air and northwest winds across the region. This
will lead to a very high grassland danger for Fri.



issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Wed 2/22/17 record highs:

Wichita: 87 in 1996
russell: 77 in 1982
salina: 76 in 1982
chanute: 80 in 1996


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 80 48 74 37 / 0 10 10 0
Hutchinson 79 46 72 34 / 0 10 10 0
Newton 79 47 70 36 / 0 10 10 0
Eldorado 78 48 74 38 / 0 0 10 0
Winfield-kwld 78 48 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 76 41 70 30 / 0 0 10 20
Great Bend 76 42 71 30 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 79 44 70 35 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 78 45 71 34 / 0 10 10 10
Coffeyville 80 49 78 44 / 0 0 10 10
Chanute 81 48 76 41 / 0 0 10 10
Iola 81 48 75 41 / 0 0 10 10
Parsons-kppf 80 49 77 43 / 0 0 10 10


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Ketcham

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